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Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026: The Year of Selective Opportunity

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With the Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026, Venionaire Capital provides a concise, cross-asset assessment of public markets, private markets, and digital assets. The report explains how macroeconomic forces shape risks and opportunities as fiscal policy extends the cycle and the margin for error narrows.

The global investment environment entering 2026 is not defined by recession, but by constraint. Growth continues, yet inflation remains persistent, interest rates stay structurally higher, and volatility becomes a permanent feature of markets.

Our central message is clear: the cycle continues, but the rules have changed.

The Five Structural Forces Shaping 2026

Against this backdrop, Venionaire Capital identifies five structural forces that will shape investment outcomes in 2026:

  1. The Macro Regime: From Policy Rates to the Term Premium

The main macro challenge in 2026 is not weak growth, but inflation that remains higher for longer. As growth continues, inflation pressure, especially in wages and services, can return.

Even without new rate hikes, higher real yields affect asset prices. Bond markets are now driven more by government issuance and inflation expectations than by central bank decisions.

Long-term assets are more sensitive to yields, and valuation discipline matters across all asset classes.

  1. Public Markets: Concentration Risk Meets Capex Reality

Stock markets are still dominated by a small number of AI-driven mega-cap companies. However, investors are shifting focus from growth and scale to capital efficiency, monetisation, and balance sheet strength.

High concentration and stretched valuations, especially in the U.S., increase the importance of relative value and diversification.

What matters more in this phase is not sheer market exposure, but the quality of earnings and underlying valuation levels.

  1. Private Markets: Recovery with a Liquidity Filter

Private equity and venture sentiment has improved, but capital remains selective. While the European Venture Sentiment Index stayed positive through 2025, rising confidence is translating into targeted investments rather than broad risk-taking. For 2026, the main constraint is realisation pathways.

Although exits are improving, liquidity remains uneven, especially for earlier-stage and mid-tier companies, increasing the relevance of secondaries, structured equity, and venture debt.

Successful private-market strategies focus on exit readiness, capital efficiency, realistic timelines, and active liquidity management rather than relying on a single IPO window.

  1. Regional VC Outlook: Leadership Broadens Beyond One Geography

Venture capital leadership is broadening beyond a single geography. North America remains the global center, but the focus shifts from funding growth to proving profitability and defensible business models.

Europe shows a cautious recovery with strong thematic depth, yet faces the challenge of scaling global champions. Latin America continues to stabilise, led by Brazil, while the Middle East expands through sovereign-backed ecosystems. In Asia, capital concentrates where regulation, execution, and infrastructure align.

Venture capital is becoming more regional and differentiated, making local market dynamics and exit pathways increasingly important.

  1. Crypto: From Narrative to Infrastructure

Crypto in 2026 is shifting from speculation toward real financial infrastructure. Stablecoins, tokenised real-world assets, institutional DeFi, AI-driven on-chain settlement, and broader access via ETFs and indices are driving adoption. As utility increases, opportunities expand, but regulatory execution and credibility remain the key risks. 
 
The opportunity set expands as crypto adoption shifts from speculation toward infrastructure, while regulatory execution and credibility risks remain the central challenges.

Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026: Bottom Line

The opportunity is real, but the game has changed.

2026 is not about chasing every opportunity, but about choosing carefully, understanding risks, and focusing on quality, realism, and structure.

Risk assets can grind higher, yet leadership is narrower, valuations matter more, and the discount rate is no longer a sideshow.

Investors who adapt to higher structural volatility and regime-driven rotations will be best positioned to navigate the year ahead.

 

Disclaimer 

This publication is issued by Venionaire Capital AG. All rights to the content of this document—including text, data, charts, tables, images, and design—are reserved. Any copying, redistribution, extraction, or other use (in whole or in part) is not permitted without the prior written approval of Venionaire Capital AG, unless explicitly allowed by mandatory law. The material isprovided for general information only. It is not prepared with regard to any individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs, and it does not constitute investment research within the meaning of applicable regulations. While Venionaire Capital AG has prepared this publication with reasonable care and may refer to sources considered reliable, norepresentation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or continued validity of the information. Views, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the situation at the time of writing and may change without notice. 

Nothing in this publication constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice, nor should it be understood as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any asset or instrument. This includes, without limitation, digital assets/crypto-assets, tokens, derivatives, or securities. Markets for digital assets may be volatile and involve significant risk, including the risk ofpartial or total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should make their own assessment and seek independent professional advice where appropriate. 

Venionaire Capital AG shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from the use of this publication or from reliance on any information contained herein, to the fullest extent permitted by law. 

© 2026 Venionaire Capital AG. All rights reserved. 

CRYPTO INSIGHTS #3 – The Anticipated Impact of Bitcoin Halving 2024 and its Tigris Web3 Crypto Fund

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Get ready for the upcoming Bitcoin Halving, expected on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, marking its fourth iteration since Bitcoin’s inception. With the block height set at 840,000, this event will witness a reduction in the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin per validated block. The implications of this event on the crypto market as a whole, as well as on Venionaire’s crypto fund, “Tigris Web3,” are of great interest to analysts and enthusiasts alike.  

 

Crypto Market Impact 

Throughout history, Bitcoin Halving events have triggered significant shifts in for the crypto world, tweakening Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. The reduction in block rewards slows the creation of new Bitcoins, potentially driving up the value of existing Bitcoins due to increased scarcity. Previous halvings created a bullish sentiment in the market, with Bitcoin’s price experiencing notable increases following previous halving events. 

 

Analyst Expectations 

Analysts hold diverse views on the 2024 Bitcoin Halving. Optimists believe that the reduced block reward will lead to a supply shock, driving up the price of Bitcoin. Historical data supports this view, as previous halving events have resulted in significant price rallies. Following this logic, Venionaire’s analysts expect strong upwards BTC price movements in 2024 up to a new all-time high. There are counter arguments as well – we’d like to mention that pessimistic analysts fear that the market has already priced in the halving event, potentially limiting its immediate impact on Bitcoin’s price. 

 

Nonetheless, the consensus among analysts is that the long-term impact of the halving will be positive, solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a store of value and further growing interest from both private, as well as institutional investors. 

 

Implications for Tigris Web3 

As an active player in the crypto investment landscape, Venionaire is well-positioned to leverage the potential opportunities presented by the upcoming Bitcoin Halving. Our crypto fund „Tigris Web3” with its focus on web3 & DeFi blockchain technologies eyes benefits from the increased interest and potential price appreciation of Bitcoin and other price correlated assets. The increased attention for web3 and Blockchain driven by the halving and potentially the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF by Blackrock, will boost the whole sector and let us expect sectore-wide growth. 

 

Venionaire’s Tigris Web3 Crypto Fund, recently set a new high watermark boasting a YTD 2023 performance (since 01.01.2023) exceeding +80%. Forecasts suggest further significant growth driven by these market dynamics. Management expects to attract both existing and new investors who recognize the significance of the Bitcoin Halving, the momentum of the Bitcoin ETF, and its potential impact on the crypto market. By strategically managing its portfolio and capitalizing on market trends, Venionaire strives hard to provide investors with lucrative returns while navigating the evolving the web3 and crypto landscape. 

 

The Bitcoin Halving 2024 is expected to have a profound impact on the crypto market. While the specific price movements remain uncertain, historical precedents and analyst expectations point towards positive effects for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market. Venionaire Capital’s Tigris Web3 Crypto Fund strategically positions itself to seize the opportunities arising by the halving, attracting investors who seek exposure to the potential benefits of this significant event. As the crypto market further evolves, Venionaire’s expertise and strategic approach will play a crucial role in navigating the changing dynamics of the industry. 

CRYPTO INSIGHTS #2 – Unlocking the Web3 Revolution: Akash Network’s Vision for Decentralized Cloud Computing

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Step into the captivating world of “Crypto Insights,” an illuminating blog series brought to you by Venionaire’s pioneering Tigris Web3 team. Venture into the frontiers of the Web3 landscape and decentralized finance (DeFi). We unveil the freshest blockchain innovations and unveil the hidden treasures nestled within the heart of the Tigris Web3 fund portfolio. For example, last edition was about two prominent players in our Tigris Web3 fund portfolio: THORChain and THORSwap. In this edition of “Crypto Insights” we turn our attention to one of our fund portfolio investments with Akash Network. This permissionless and decentralized marketplace for cloud computing resources is gaining significant attention in 2023 due to the growing demand-supply gap for high-performance computing power in an increasingly AI-driven digital environment. Let’s dive into what makes Akash Network unique. 

 

Paving the Way for Decentralized Web3 Cloud Services 

Akash‘s vision aligns well with the Web3 vision and thus with Venionaire’s strategy for the Tigris Web3 Fund. It is improbable, that the majority of Web3 will rely on AWS servers. A shift towards more decentralized, censor ship resistant services with reduced counter party risk fits the narrative much better. Combine this with lower costs, full flexibility, more efficient hardware resources and Akash becomes a strong contender in the cloud market. The founding and core development team around Greg Osuri bring strong conviction and extensive experience to the project. Initial traction since launch has been undoubtly promising, indicating early product-market fit. As a Web3-enabling technology, Akash is in a very good position to onboard customers in the Web3 space. Revenue and adoption might therefore grow in tandem with the adoption of Web3 services and products. Meanwhile, convincing and onboarding typical Web2 customers might be more challenging. Moreover, it requires further improvements in user experience and smoothness of onboarding to the service. 

 

Challenging the OG Web2 giants. 

Internet Pioneers might remember the time when personal dedicated machines hosted websites. These times are long gone. Cloud Computing, once an innovative and revolutionary technology has become the norm. It replaced personally owned and operated servers and data centers for the vast majority of websites and web apps. Today, nearly everything we interact with on the internet is hosted. The three major cloud computing providers: Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure store all data, including yours and mine. These internet giants have a firm grip on the most important single mean of collaboration, communication, knowledge sourcing and commerce platform of the 21st century. Paying for digital services, be it your company’s B2B CRM platform, your project management tool or your favorite music or video streaming platform, has become normal. But many people are not aware that a significant portion of every dollar spent on any of these services goes directly to one of our three cloud giants. 

If one of these (or even worse – all three) went offline, the internet would effectively stop functioning. Furthermore, this would have massive repercussions across various fields of society. The dominating providers may also decide to blacklist certain services, apps, websites or organizations from using their services. As a result, this effectively cuts them off from the internet. 

 

Akash Network: Democratizing the Internet 

This is where Akash Network comes into play, aiming to disrupt the status quo by challenging the OG Web2 giants. Imagine that Amazon, Microsoft and Google are the “hotels” of the internet. They are highly specialized and asset and capital intensive offering massive capacity etc. Akash Network then is the Airbnb alternative. 

It allows anyone to rent out their unused computing power through a reversed auction system on a permissionless, sovereign, decentralized governed and open-source blockchain based network. Millions of PCs and servers sit idle or underutilized. Akash enables their owners to convert this idle infrastructure into passive income streams. The network is governed by the AKT token stakers in a typical delegated proof-of-stake governance DAO. This and the permissionless nature of offering and acquiring computing space severely limits the influence single parties have on the network, potentially making the internet more censorship resistant. Bad actors can be held accountable, as providers are incentivized to not be associated with these parties. In severe cases the AKT governance has the possibility to step in. AKT stakers receive rewards containing a share of the revenue generated by the network. They are also rewarded for securing and validating the blockchain. 

 

Expanding to GPU Computing and introducing the AI Supercloud 

In Q3 2023 Akash Network launched its GPU computing marketplace. The growing demand for AI-powered, cloud hosted applications such as Bard, Chat GPT, Dall-E, Midjourney, et al., has led to a surge in research and development for all sorts of Artificial Intelligence services. Training and furthermore running these models, require a completely new and unprecedented level of computing power. As demand exceeds supply, prices for AI specialized GPU computing resources skyrocketed. Sometimes they are rarely available at all for smaller companies and startups. With the introduction of its GPU „AI Supercloud“, Akash is addressing this market opportunity. Especially the thousands of GPU crypto miners, which partially became obsolete with Ethereum’s shift from proof of work to proof of stake, might be interesting targets for this new GPU marketplace. 

 

If you would like to know more about Blockchain innovations, Tigris Web3 or other Fund Portfolio Investments David Teufel, our investment director at Venionaire Capital, can contact you. Just fill out the form below.

CRYPTO INSIGHTS #1 – THORChain’s Streaming Swaps: A Revolution in Decentralized Finance

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Step into the captivating world of “Crypto Insights,” an illuminating blog series brought to you by Venionaire’s pioneering Tigris Web3 team. Venture into the frontiers of the Web3 landscape and decentralized finance (DeFi). We unveil the freshest blockchain innovations and unveil the hidden treasures nestled within the heart of the Tigris Web3 fund portfolio. 

THORChain’s Streaming Swaps: A DeFi Revolution

Welcome to another enlightening edition of “Crypto Insights,” an illuminating series brought to you by Venionaire’s Tigris Web3 team. In this edition, we’ll delve into the thrilling realm of the Web3 space, shedding light on the groundbreaking blockchain innovations that are shaping the future of finance. Today, we’re excited to unravel the captivating stories of two prominent players in our Tigris Web3 fund portfolio: THORChain and THORSwap. These dynamic entities have ignited the crypto realm with surging trading volumes, propelling their native tokens to remarkable heights. As these projects continue to garner attention with soaring trading volumes and noteworthy price movements, let’s journey into their worlds and unveil the reasons behind their success. 

Tackling DeFi Challenges 

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) in general offers many advantages over Centralized Finance (CeFi). However, one of its major problems since its inception has been operational and technical risks. Those risks relate to a variety of wrappers, bridges, and smart contracts necessary. These are needed due to a lack of native cross-chain interoperability and multiple inefficiencies. These inefficiencies arise due to high trading fees, transactional costs, and high slippage because of shallow liquidity. As a result, larger traders and funds like us rely more on Centralized Exchanges, Brokers, and OTC trades than we as DeFi and Web3 “natives” would prefer. 

At Venionaire, we’re dedicated to harnessing the potential of DeFi, and in our quest for optimal swap paths, we’ve immersed ourselves in a myriad of Decentralized Exchanges. Among these, THORChain and THORSwap stand tall, embodying the innovation and efficiency we believe in. In the vast expanse of the Web3 universe, THORChain and THORSwap have emerged as shining stars. These dynamic technologies have gained significant momentum within our Tigris Web3 fund portfolio. That makes them more than just investments – they’re a testament to our foresight and believe in this revolutionary landscape.

THORChain’s Galactic Rise

THORChain, a pivotal component of our portfolio, has captured the attention of many as it introduces a decentralized paradigm shift to finance (DeFi). Besides the capital efficiency of THORChain due to its Continuous Liquidity Pool model and its strong tokenomics, which creates natural demand for RUNE, THORChains native token, we were equally bullish on the planned development Roadmap. One of these planned features recently hit the ground running, secretly revolutionizing Decentralized Finance. Addiitonally, it led to a small (but at this stage probably temporary) bull run for both RUNE and THOR tokens. 

Powered by cutting-edge blockchain technology, THORChain disrupts traditional financial models by enabling and facilitating direct peer-to-peer interactions. Its decentralization empowers users to transact autonomously, bypassing intermediaries and fostering transparency. In simple terms, it enables users to engage in financial activities without relying on intermediaries like banks. This DeFi approach unlocks unprecedented opportunities for users to take control of their financial autonomy and foster transparency. Our investment in THORChain aligns seamlessly with our ideals of autonomy and transparency, amplifying our enthusiasm for its growth. As of now, THORChain stands at a remarkable +55%. While we are acutely aware of the pronounced volatility inherent in the crypto sector, we are fortunate to have seasoned experts within our team adept at navigating these fluctuations.

THORSwap’s Ascension in the Crypto Realm

In the symphony of DeFi and complementing THORChain’s ascendancy, we find THORSwap. This is an essential and harmonious counterpart in our Tigris Web3 fund portfolio. THORSwap contributes to the DeFi ecosystem by providing a platform for seamless asset swapping. Unlike before, where a single swap had to meet all liquidity needs at once, streaming enables the distribution of liquidity needs across multiple moments. This allowes arbitrageurs to rectify prices during the swap. It leads to more precise price execution with much lower slippage. Simultaneously, it circumvents multiple in- and outbound chain gas fees from splitting into several manual transactions. 

Imagine being able to trade various tokens effortlessly, all while enjoying the security and efficiency of blockchain technology. This innovative approach not only enhances convenience but also empowers users to participate in a borderless global financial landscape. 

Why We’re Enthusiastic About These Technologies

Our unwavering belief in the Web3 revolution for sure drives our investment choices. THORChain and THORSwap embody our commitment to autonomy, transparency, and innovation and contribute to enabling users taking over control. With these technologies users can modify sub-swaps over time using two parameters, based on their intent of either price or time optimization: 

  • Swap Interval: This determines the time gap between sub-swaps. It is measured in THORChain blocks, each approximately 6 seconds long. This interval allows arbitrage opportunities between sub-swaps, keeping pools continuously balanced. This prevents capital shortages during swaps. 
  • Swap Count: Users can specify how many sub-swaps should occur within the original swap amount. More sub-swaps result in smaller swap sizes for each leg, minimizing slippage in each sub-swap. 

This approach enhances THORChain’s capital efficiency without altering Total Value Locked (TVL). For instance, a Streaming Swap with a count of 10 makes the sub-swap/pool ratio ten times better than a single large swap, effectively enlarging the pool’s appearance. Similarly, a Streaming Swap with a count of 100 makes the pool seem a hundred times larger. 

Unlocking High-Volume Trades and Cost Savings

Streaming Swaps facilitate larger trades on THORChain and allow substantial traders to pay as low as 5 basis points in liquidity fees. That makes THORChain more appealing for sizable on-chain trades. This change aims to attract a broader user base, particularly those trading over $100k. Trades with $1m plus in value were completed within 2 hours, with lower transaction costs compared to major Centralized Exchanges. As fund managers, we’re thrilled to attest that this groundbreaking feature seamlessly enhances our operations on-chain. It liberates us from reliance on external intermediaries, and concurrently unlocking substantial cost savings. 

As passionate advocates of the Web3 revolution, it’s no surprise that we’re invested in these groundbreaking technologies. THORChain and THORSwap mirror the ideals we hold dear – autonomy, transparency, and innovation. By investing in projects that align with these values, we contribute to the transformation of traditional finance into a more accessible, efficient, and decentralized system. As these projects flourish, they reinforce our dedication to transforming traditional finance into a more accessible, efficient, and decentralized entity.  

Increased Volume proving early product-market fit 

We are not the only ones happy to use Streaming Swaps. Presently, fees surpass block rewards, highlighting THORChain’s increased activity. Introducing Streaming Swaps strategically attracts users who typically trade larger amounts, securing THORChain’s position as a leading swap route. The main direct DEX and User Interface built on THORChain, THORSwap saw a massive increase in Trading Volume as well as revenue generated. THORSwap’s native token THOR was able to capitalize on that with a price increase of roughly 300% since the introduction of the Streaming Swap feature. With an innovative lending product lurking around the corner, we stay bullish, and we stay invested in both THORChain (RUNE) and THORSwap (THOR). 

Embracing the Future

Our journey exemplifies the commitment to exploring, understanding, and investing in the future of finance. These technologies are more than just financial assets. They embody a movement that challenges the status quo and embraces the potential of decentralized systems. Our involvement with these projects reflects our dedication to pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in the ever-evolving Web3 landscape. 

Our Tigris Web3 fund portfolio stands as a testament to our unwavering dedication to progress, innovation, and transformative change. Join “Crypto Insights” again for more exciting revelations from the world of Web3, where possibilities are endless, and the future is now. If you are interested in learning more about our other portfolio investments, our strategy, and the Tigris Web3 Fund in general, contact us at tw3@venionaire.com. 

A Decade of Innovation & Digital Transformation: A Look at the Buzzwords and Developments

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Over the past 10 years, the world has witnessed a rapid and transformative period of innovation and digital transformation. From groundbreaking technologies to disruptive business models, the last decade has brought forth a multitude of buzzwords and developments that have shaped industries across the globe. In this article, we will delve into some of the most significant advancements and highlight the key buzzwords that have emerged during this transformative period. 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning

No discussion on digital transformation is complete without mentioning AI and machine learning. These technologies have revolutionized various industries, enabling computers to mimic human intelligence and learn from data. From chatbots and virtual assistants to predictive analytics and autonomous vehicles, AI and machine learning have become essential tools for businesses seeking to gain a competitive edge. 

Internet of Things (IoT)

The IoT refers to the network of physical devices, vehicles, appliances, and other objects embedded with sensors and software that enable them to connect and exchange data. Not only has this interconnectedness paved the way for smart homes, smart cities, and industrial automation. IoT has also played a crucial role in data collection, enabling businesses to gather valuable insights and optimize their operations. 

Cloud Computing

Cloud computing has transformed the way businesses operate and store data. With the ability to access and store data remotely, companies can reduce costs and enhance scalability. Moreover, Cloud-based services offer flexibility, security, and collaboration opportunities, allowing businesses to streamline their operations and focus on their core competencies. 

Big Data and Analytics

The exponential growth of data has given rise to the need for advanced analytics tools and techniques. Big data analytics leverages large datasets to uncover patterns, correlations, and trends, enabling businesses to make data-driven decisions. This has paved the way for personalized marketing, predictive maintenance, and enhanced customer experiences. 

Blockchain Technology

Blockchain technology burst onto the scene with the advent of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, its potential goes far beyond digital currencies. Blockchain offers a decentralized and transparent approach to record-keeping, enabling secure transactions, supply chain traceability, and smart contracts. Its impact spans industries such as finance, logistics, and healthcare. 

Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) 

 AR and VR have transformed the way we interact with digital content and the physical world. AR overlays digital information onto the real world, enhancing experiences in fields like gaming, retail, and education. VR, on the other hand, immerses users in a virtual environment, revolutionizing areas such as training, entertainment, and healthcare. 

The past decade has been a whirlwind of innovation and digital transformation, reshaping industries and revolutionizing the way we live and work. From AI and machine learning to IoT and blockchain, these developments have ushered in a new era of possibilities. As we reflect on the incredible journey of the last 10 years, it’s clear that these buzzwords and advancements will continue to mold the future, presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses worldwide. Embracing and harnessing these technologies will be crucial for organizations aiming to thrive in an increasingly digital world. 

Join Us at the World Venture Forum 2024 in Kitzbühel 

To celebrate this remarkable decade of progress, exploration, and transformation, we invite you to join us at the 10-year anniversary of the World Venture Forum in 2024, set against the breathtaking backdrop of Kitzbühel. At this prestigious event, thought leaders, innovators, and visionaries from around the globe will gather to dive deeper into these groundbreaking topics, explore emerging trends, and chart the course for the next wave of innovation. Stay tuned for an unforgettable experience that will shape the future of business and technology. See you in Kitzbühel! 

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