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Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples: Valuation Built for Private Markets

Venionaire DealMatrix, subsidiary of Venionaire Capital, has launched Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples, providing private-market EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA valuation multiples that can be explored by sector, stage, and region.

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Figure 1: Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples

The launch builds on Venionaire Capital’s long-standing activity across Venture Capital, Private Equity, and M&A, where valuation decisions are routinely made in environments characterized by limited transparency and high contextual dependency.


The challenge: valuation without a private-market framework

Across private markets, pricing decisions are still largely anchored in experience, precedent transactions, and public-market multiples. Not because these tools are ideal, but because there has been no widely available alternative designed specifically for private companies.

Private transactions are rarely disclosed, deal terms are negotiated bilaterally, and pricing varies significantly by sector, company stage, and geographic context. As a result, comparability is limited and valuation discussions often rely on narrative rather than a shared analytical foundation.


Why public-market multiples fall short

Public-market multiples became the default reference due to their availability and structure. However, they reflect a fundamentally different environment—one shaped by liquidity, scale, standardized reporting, and immediate exitability.

These characteristics rarely apply to private companies. Applying public multiples to private transactions therefore requires subjective adjustment, which introduces inconsistency when used systematically across deals.


Building a private-market methodology

Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples were developed to address this structural gap.

Instead of adapting public-market benchmarks, the methodology was built from the ground up around private-market characteristics. The result is a framework for calculating EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples for private companies, structured by:

  • sector

  • company stage

  • geographic region

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Figure 2: Industries Filter

 

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Figure 3: Regional & Stage Filter

 

Public-market data serves as a starting point for peer-group identification, but is systematically contextualized using macroeconomic indicators and proprietary private-market datasets accumulated through Venionaire’s work in Venture Capital, Private Equity, and M&A.


Launching Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples

Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples are now live. They are designed to support valuation discussions, deal screening, and comparative analysis by providing structure where private markets have traditionally relied on fragmented benchmarks and individual experience.

To introduce the product, the DealMatrix team has prepared a short video demonstrating how the platform works and how private-market multiples can be explored in practice.

Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026: The Year of Selective Opportunity

With the Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026, Venionaire Capital provides a concise, cross-asset assessment of public markets, private markets, and digital assets. The report explains how macroeconomic forces shape risks and opportunities as fiscal policy extends the cycle and the margin for error narrows.

The global investment environment entering 2026 is not defined by recession, but by constraint. Growth continues, yet inflation remains persistent, interest rates stay structurally higher, and volatility becomes a permanent feature of markets.

Our central message is clear: the cycle continues, but the rules have changed.

The Five Structural Forces Shaping 2026

Against this backdrop, Venionaire Capital identifies five structural forces that will shape investment outcomes in 2026:

  1. The Macro Regime: From Policy Rates to the Term Premium

The main macro challenge in 2026 is not weak growth, but inflation that remains higher for longer. As growth continues, inflation pressure, especially in wages and services, can return.

Even without new rate hikes, higher real yields affect asset prices. Bond markets are now driven more by government issuance and inflation expectations than by central bank decisions.

Long-term assets are more sensitive to yields, and valuation discipline matters across all asset classes.

  1. Public Markets: Concentration Risk Meets Capex Reality

Stock markets are still dominated by a small number of AI-driven mega-cap companies. However, investors are shifting focus from growth and scale to capital efficiency, monetisation, and balance sheet strength.

High concentration and stretched valuations, especially in the U.S., increase the importance of relative value and diversification.

What matters more in this phase is not sheer market exposure, but the quality of earnings and underlying valuation levels.

  1. Private Markets: Recovery with a Liquidity Filter

Private equity and venture sentiment has improved, but capital remains selective. While the European Venture Sentiment Index stayed positive through 2025, rising confidence is translating into targeted investments rather than broad risk-taking. For 2026, the main constraint is realisation pathways.

Although exits are improving, liquidity remains uneven, especially for earlier-stage and mid-tier companies, increasing the relevance of secondaries, structured equity, and venture debt.

Successful private-market strategies focus on exit readiness, capital efficiency, realistic timelines, and active liquidity management rather than relying on a single IPO window.

  1. Regional VC Outlook: Leadership Broadens Beyond One Geography

Venture capital leadership is broadening beyond a single geography. North America remains the global center, but the focus shifts from funding growth to proving profitability and defensible business models.

Europe shows a cautious recovery with strong thematic depth, yet faces the challenge of scaling global champions. Latin America continues to stabilise, led by Brazil, while the Middle East expands through sovereign-backed ecosystems. In Asia, capital concentrates where regulation, execution, and infrastructure align.

Venture capital is becoming more regional and differentiated, making local market dynamics and exit pathways increasingly important.

  1. Crypto: From Narrative to Infrastructure

Crypto in 2026 is shifting from speculation toward real financial infrastructure. Stablecoins, tokenised real-world assets, institutional DeFi, AI-driven on-chain settlement, and broader access via ETFs and indices are driving adoption. As utility increases, opportunities expand, but regulatory execution and credibility remain the key risks. 
 
The opportunity set expands as crypto adoption shifts from speculation toward infrastructure, while regulatory execution and credibility risks remain the central challenges.

Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026: Bottom Line

The opportunity is real, but the game has changed.

2026 is not about chasing every opportunity, but about choosing carefully, understanding risks, and focusing on quality, realism, and structure.

Risk assets can grind higher, yet leadership is narrower, valuations matter more, and the discount rate is no longer a sideshow.

Investors who adapt to higher structural volatility and regime-driven rotations will be best positioned to navigate the year ahead.

 

Disclaimer 

This publication is issued by Venionaire Capital AG. All rights to the content of this document—including text, data, charts, tables, images, and design—are reserved. Any copying, redistribution, extraction, or other use (in whole or in part) is not permitted without the prior written approval of Venionaire Capital AG, unless explicitly allowed by mandatory law. The material isprovided for general information only. It is not prepared with regard to any individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs, and it does not constitute investment research within the meaning of applicable regulations. While Venionaire Capital AG has prepared this publication with reasonable care and may refer to sources considered reliable, norepresentation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or continued validity of the information. Views, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the situation at the time of writing and may change without notice. 

Nothing in this publication constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice, nor should it be understood as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any asset or instrument. This includes, without limitation, digital assets/crypto-assets, tokens, derivatives, or securities. Markets for digital assets may be volatile and involve significant risk, including the risk ofpartial or total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should make their own assessment and seek independent professional advice where appropriate. 

Venionaire Capital AG shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from the use of this publication or from reliance on any information contained herein, to the fullest extent permitted by law. 

© 2026 Venionaire Capital AG. All rights reserved. 

Private Equity Outlook 2025: Trends and Opportunities

As we move in 2025, private equity (PE) continues to evolve, shaped by changing market dynamics and shifting investor confidence. After a resilient 2024, PE firms are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities, while also facing challenges in an increasingly competitive market. This article provides a private equity outlook for 2025 and covers private equity trends and challenges.  

Private Equity 2024: A Year of Resilience 

In 2024, private equity demonstrated resilience. Lower interest rates contributed to strong PE performance, allowing firms to access capital more easily. At the same time, there was a renewed focus on value creation, including driving operational improvements, increasing organic growth, and enhancing profitability. These strategies have helped PE firms adapt to market fluctuations and position themselves for long-term growth. 

Dry Powder: Capital Abundance in 2025 

One of the most notable features of the private equity landscape in 2025 is the substantial amount of capital available for investment. With over $1.6 trillion in “dry powder,” PE firms are primed to deploy capital and seize opportunities. Furthermore, this vast capital cushion is expected to help maintain steady valuations and fuel increased deal activity throughout the year. 

However, this abundance of capital comes with a catch: the competition for quality assets will be fierce. As investors look to deploy their funds, PE firms will need to focus on value creation within their portfolio companies to remain competitive. This includes operational improvements and expanding market reach—key factors that will differentiate successful firms from the rest. 

Buy and Build: A Strategy for Scalable Growth

A key trend emerging in 2025 is the increasing adoption of the “buy and build” strategy by PE firms. Instead of relying solely on organic growth, investors are actively acquiring smaller, complementary businesses to integrate into existing portfolio companies. This approach allows firms to drive rapid scalability, create operational efficiencies, and enhance overall value. By consolidating fragmented industries, PE firms can leverage synergies and strengthen their competitive positioning, making buy and build an attractive strategy in today’s highly competitive landscape.

Strategic Exits: Maximizing Returns 

Strategic exits remain an important part of private equity’s value proposition. Advent International‘s $1.6 billion exit from BSV Group, via its sale to Mankind Pharma, serves as a prime example of how well-executed exits can generate solid returns. Such successful exits undoubtedly highlight the importance of finding the right time and conditions to maximize value. 

With dry powder continuing to rise, the number of strategic exits in 2025 is expected to increase. For PE investors, the focus will be on identifying the most opportune moments to divest and secure returns on investment. 

The IPO Resurgence: A Growing Opportunity 

In 2025, IPOs are expected to make a strong comeback. After a lull in recent years, PE-backed IPOs are projected to account for 40% of the total IPO market in the U.S., a significant increase from just 3% in 2022. This resurgence is due to rising investor confidence and improved market conditions. PE-backed IPOs have historically performed well, with median gains of 21%, in contrast to the losses seen in VC-backed IPOs. 

This trend is expected to continue, with PE firms looking to leverage the IPO market as a liquidity event. For investors, this offers a potential exit strategy and a way to realize returns on investments. 

Geographic Trends: A Shift in Focus 

Geographically, private equity is seeing a shift in focus. India, now the largest PE market in Asia-Pacific (APAC), has seen increased deal flow due to its expanding middle class and strong economic growth. This makes India an attractive market for PE firms looking for alternative opportunities to China. 

In Europe, fundraising for middle-market PE deals is expected to surge, especially in the EUR 100 million to EUR 5 billion range. This segment remains a core part of the European private equity market, with continued interest from investors. 

Looking Ahead: Key Strategies for Success 

As private equity enters 2025, firms will need to navigate an environment marked by intense competition and abundant capital. To succeed, firms will need to prioritize value creation within their portfolio companies. This involves driving operational improvements, enhancing profitability, and expanding market reach. With IPO activity set to rise, strategic exits will remain an important consideration for PE firms. Additionally, the geographic shift toward emerging markets, particularly in APAC, offers exciting new opportunities. 

Private equity in 2025 will be characterized by abundant capital, increasing IPO activity, and a renewed focus on value creation. Firms will need to adapt to an evolving landscape, driven by both opportunities and competition.  

Listen to all the new trends and market developments in the first episode of Venionaire Insights:

 

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