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Europe’s VC reset – recovery without a cycle reset

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

Europe’s venture environment has moved into a recovery phase characterised by improving activity and clearer thematic focus – while remaining structurally selective rather than broadly risk-on.

This distinction matters. A rebound in funding and sentiment does not automatically translate into unconstrained growth. Outcomes remain tied to liquidity, exit capacity, and the ability to scale beyond early success.

Rebound, not risk-on – liquidity still rules.

 

Rebound numbers – activity returns, selectivity persists

European venture activity recovered in 2025, reaching USD 65.9 bn across 3,784 transactions. Capital deployment, however, remained uneven across stages:

  • Late-stage: USD 26.6 bn across 781 deals
  • Early-stage: USD 18.8 bn across 662 deals
  • Technology growth: USD 13.7 bn across 83 deals
  • Seed and angel: USD 6.7 bn across 2,258 deals

Sentiment indicators stayed above neutral throughout the year, pointing to renewed confidence without a return to indiscriminate allocation.

Mechanism: Recovery is taking place inside a constrained capital regime – where liquidity and realisation pathways determine which companies can convert momentum into durable outcomes.

Thematic specialisation – depth as Europe’s advantage

Europe’s recovery is underpinned by thematic concentration rather than broad-based exposure. Capital continues to cluster around areas with established regional depth:

  • Targeted AI specialisation, moving beyond general experimentation
  • Applied AI and infrastructure layers such as compute, data tooling, chips, and AI safety
  • ClimateTech and the wider energy transition

Into 2026, the shift is from horizontal technology narratives toward domain-specific applications and infrastructure that can justify selective capital deployment.

Mechanism: Specialisation supports recovery only when it creates defensible scaling paths – not when it simply accelerates early validation.

The scale gap – Europe’s unresolved champion problem

A persistent structural constraint remains Europe’s difficulty in building global champions.

Innovation is strong – scaling champions is the gap.

Venture-backed companies frequently achieve technical and commercial validation but are absorbed before reaching full scale, resulting in the export of intellectual property and long-term value creation.

The emergence of new unicorns in 2025 signals renewed formation capacity, but does not resolve the scaling bottleneck on its own. Without sufficient late-stage capital and liquidity mechanisms, exits risk becoming the default outcome rather than a strategic choice.

Late-stage growth capital and secondaries are therefore positioned as structurally important tools for extending holding periods and supporting scale.

Mechanism: Recovery strengthens the pipeline – but without deeper scaling infrastructure, it reinforces the same pattern it seeks to overcome.

What to watch in 2026

The binding variable is not sentiment, but realisation.

Key questions:

  • Do exit channels broaden beyond episodic windows?
  • Do secondaries normalise as a structural liquidity instrument?
  • Do barriers to scale meaningfully decline, enabling value to compound locally rather than being exported?

Why this matters

Europe’s VC reset is not a cyclical replay. It combines recovery with selectivity – while leaving the central challenge unresolved: scaling champions instead of exporting IP.

The broader framework that connects venture dynamics to liquidity, exits, and the cross-asset environment sits beyond this mechanism view.

The North America VC shape: broad seed, narrow scale

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

North America’s venture market holds two truths at once: high deal activity at the earliest stages and heavy capital concentration at scale. In practice, seed and angel rounds create volume, while the market’s real “yes/no” decisions happen later, where fewer rounds absorb most of the dollars.

As a result, that barbell structure matters in 2026 because it changes what “momentum” looks like. At the same time, a busy pipeline can coexist with a narrow set of winners. Ultimately, the question is not whether companies can start, but whether they can graduate into the part of the market where outcomes are priced.

AI concentrates capital – broad seed activity continues, but late-stage conviction rounds dominate.

AI as the market’s gravity well – and a concentration amplifier

At the centre of the North American venture market sits AI. In particular, capital clusters around the parts of the stack that are harder to replicate – infrastructure, compute, chips, data tooling, and robotics – and, by contrast, becomes more selective elsewhere.

Consequently, in a gravity-well regime, “sector rotation” happens inside venture itself. Rather than following ideas alone, funding increasingly follows durability. Therefore, the closer a business model is to defensible infrastructure and real-world deployment, the easier it becomes to justify large cheques.

2026: from deployment to capital justification

Into 2026, the market shifts from capital deployment to capital justification. After a year defined by mega-rounds, investors now expect tangible outcomes – revenue growth, defensible moats, and credible paths to profitability.

In effect, this shift turns proof into a financing input. Accordingly, execution quality becomes a pricing factor – and “why this capital, at this valuation, right now?” emerges as a core underwriting question across stages.

Exit visibility improves – liquidity remains uneven

On the one hand, exit visibility improves: an IPO window reopens and M&A provides an additional route to realisation, thereby broadening the outcomes companies can actively position for.

On the other hand, liquidity remains uneven – particularly for mid-tier and earlier-stage companies. Therefore, this is where 2026 gets practical: companies and investors need a plan that assumes exits can happen, but not on command.

2026 demands proof – capital justification, exit readiness, and uneven liquidity decide outcomes.

Financing adapts as proof thresholds rise

In a proof-driven regime, the financing toolkit expands. Specifically, alternative structures move into focus – including venture debt, structured equity, and secondary transactions – as flexible ways to support portfolio companies without relying solely on traditional equity rounds.

Importantly, the point is not financial engineering for its own sake. Instead, it is about matching company timelines to imperfect liquidity and, in turn, protecting optionality when the market rewards evidence over narrative.

What to watch in 2026

For example, where does “capital justification” show up first – in pricing, terms, or follow-on selectivity? Additionally, does the AI gravity well widen the gap between scaled platforms and the mid-tier? Finally, do alternative structures improve runway and optionality – or simply delay the hard reset?

Why this matters for 2026 decision-making

Overall, North America remains the centre of gravity – but the bar is moving. Capital does not disappear; instead, it becomes more conditional. In 2026, proof, discipline, and exit readiness are what turn attention into outcomes.

If you want the full integrated context – including the broader regime logic that sits behind this shift across public markets, private capital, and digital assets – then download the complete Market Outlook 2026.

DefenseTech 2026: Where Investors Should Pay Attention

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DefenseTech 2026 is emerging as one of the most important investment themes of the decade.

Global markets are entering a phase where technology, geopolitics, and capital markets intersect more closely than ever before. Defense is no longer limited to traditional military contractors. Instead, it increasingly includes startups, software companies, satellite providers, and cybersecurity platforms.

As a result, investors are beginning to treat defense technology as a strategic innovation sector rather than a purely governmental domain.

In short, DefenseTech has moved from the margins of venture capital to the center of geopolitical technology competition.

Why DefenseTech Is Becoming a Major Investment Theme

Several structural trends explain the growing importance of DefenseTech in 2026.

First, the global security environment has changed. Many governments now speak openly about hybrid threats, which combine cyber attacks, infrastructure disruption, economic pressure, and technological competition.

Unlike traditional warfare, hybrid threats target entire societies. Critical infrastructure such as energy systems, telecommunications networks, financial platforms, and supply chains are now considered strategic assets.

In our recent Let’s Talk About Tech podcast with Dr. Bernhard Müller, Industry Lead Aerospace & Defense at PwC, we discussed how cyber attacks, infrastructure disruptions, and digital warfare are already shaping modern security environments.

This shift has direct implications for investors. Governments and corporations are now allocating capital toward technologies that increase resilience, security, and strategic autonomy.

The Rise of Dual-Use Innovation

Another defining feature of DefenseTech 2026 is the rise of dual-use technologies.

Historically, many breakthrough technologies, like the internet, GPS or satellite communications, originated in defense research.

However, innovation dynamics have changed.

Today, the private sector often leads technological progress. Startups and commercial technology companies develop innovations that can later be adapted for defense applications.

Examples include:

  • artificial intelligence systems

  • drone and autonomous technologies

  • satellite networks

  • cybersecurity platforms

  • quantum technologies

Because private companies innovate faster than traditional military procurement cycles, governments increasingly rely on commercial technology ecosystems.

For investors, this creates a new category of companies operating at the intersection of venture capital, national security, and deep technology.

Critical Infrastructure Is the New Strategic Battlefield

One of the most important consequences of hybrid threats is the focus on national resilience.

Governments are now investing heavily in protecting critical infrastructure. This includes:

  • electricity grids

  • telecommunications systems

  • financial networks

  • water infrastructure

  • logistics and supply chains

Even short disruptions in these systems can cause significant economic damage.

For example, cyber attacks targeting infrastructure operators or financial institutions have already demonstrated how quickly modern economies can be affected.

As Müller explains, resilience has therefore become a new leadership principle for both governments and corporations.

Defense Spending Is Entering a Structural Growth Cycle

DefenseTech 2026 is also supported by a major macroeconomic trend: rising global defense spending.

Across Europe and NATO countries, governments are increasing military budgets and investing in technological modernization.

This shift reflects several structural drivers:

  • geopolitical fragmentation

  • supply chain security

  • technological competition between global powers

  • protection of critical infrastructure

Importantly, many of these investments focus on technology rather than traditional hardware.

As a result, private technology companies are becoming essential partners in the defense ecosystem.

For venture investors and private equity firms, this creates opportunities across the broader security and resilience technology stack.

Space Is Becoming a Strategic Technology Domain

Another emerging pillar of DefenseTech is space.

Satellite infrastructure has become a critical backbone for modern economies and security systems alike, enabling navigation, global communications, surveillance capabilities, and military coordination. At the same time, the rapid expansion of commercial satellite constellations is fundamentally changing the economics of space technology.

Private companies are now building large-scale satellite networks that serve both civilian markets and defense-related applications. As a result, governments are increasingly integrating commercial space providers into their national security architectures.

For investors, this development signals that space technology is evolving beyond a specialized government domain into a strategic layer of commercial infrastructure with growing geopolitical relevance.

DefenseTech 2026: The Investor Perspective

Taken together, these developments are reshaping the technology investment landscape.

DefenseTech now sits at the intersection of several major innovation domains:

  • artificial intelligence

  • cybersecurity

  • autonomous systems

  • satellite infrastructure

  • quantum technologies

  • advanced manufacturing

Importantly, many of these technologies serve both civilian and defense markets.

This dual-use dynamic makes DefenseTech particularly interesting for venture capital and private equity investors.

The companies building these technologies are not only contributing to national security. They are also shaping the next generation of global technology infrastructure.

Listen to the Full Discussion

To explore these topics in more depth, listen to our latest Let’s Talk About Tech podcast episode featuring Dr. Bernhard Müller, Industry Lead Aerospace & Defense at PwC.

In this episode we discuss:

  • hybrid warfare and cybersecurity

  • critical infrastructure resilience

  • the role of private sector innovation in defense

  • geopolitical developments shaping technology markets

Listen to the full episode:

Speak With Our Investment Team

Defense technology, infrastructure resilience, and dual-use innovation are becoming key areas of strategic investment.

At Venionaire Capital, we continuously analyze emerging technology sectors and their implications for investors, founders, and corporate partners.

If you are building a company in the DefenseTech, cybersecurity, or deep-technology ecosystem, or if you are an investor exploring opportunities in this space, we would be happy to connect.

Speak with our team to explore collaboration or investment opportunities.

Disclaimer

This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. The content reflects general market perspectives and does not represent an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any securities or investment products. Past performance and market observations are not indicative of future results. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions.

Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples: Valuation Multiples Built for Private Markets

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Venionaire DealMatrix, subsidiary of Venionaire Capital, has launched Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples, providing private-market EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA valuation multiples that can be explored by sector, stage, and region.

Venionaire-DealMatrix-Multiples-Mockup-2

Figure 1: Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples

The launch builds on Venionaire Capital’s long-standing activity across Venture Capital, Private Equity, and M&A, where valuation decisions are routinely made in environments characterized by limited transparency and high contextual dependency.

The challenge: valuation without a private-market framework

Across private markets, pricing decisions are still largely anchored in experience, precedent transactions, and public-market multiples. Not because these tools are ideal, but because there has been no widely available alternative designed specifically for private companies.

Private transactions are rarely disclosed, deal terms are negotiated bilaterally, and pricing varies significantly by sector, company stage, and geographic context. As a result, comparability is limited and valuation discussions often rely on narrative rather than a shared analytical foundation.

Why public-market multiples fall short

Public-market multiples became the default reference due to their availability and structure. However, they reflect a fundamentally different environment—one shaped by liquidity, scale, standardized reporting, and immediate exitability.

These characteristics rarely apply to private companies. Applying public multiples to private transactions therefore requires subjective adjustment, which introduces inconsistency when used systematically across deals.

Building a private-market methodology

Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples were developed to address this structural gap.

Instead of adapting public-market benchmarks, the methodology was built from the ground up around private-market characteristics. The result is a framework for calculating EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples for private companies, structured by:

  • sector

  • company stage

  • geographic region

DealMatrix_Multiples_Industries

Figure 2: Industries Filter

 

DealMatrix_Multiples_Region_Stage

Figure 3: Regional & Stage Filter

 

Public-market data serves as a starting point for peer-group identification, but is systematically contextualized using macroeconomic indicators and proprietary private-market datasets accumulated through Venionaire’s work in Venture Capital, Private Equity, and M&A.

Launching Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples

Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples are now live. They are designed to support valuation discussions, deal screening, and comparative analysis by providing structure where private markets have traditionally relied on fragmented benchmarks and individual experience.

To introduce the product, the DealMatrix team has prepared a short video demonstrating how the platform works and how private-market multiples can be explored in practice.

Venionaire DealMatrix launches “Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples” – time series-based PE and VC valuation multiples filtered by sector, company phase, and region

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Venionaire DealMatrix, a subsidiary of Venionaire Capital, announces the launch of Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples. The new product provides private equity and venture capital multiples (EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA) covering over 140 sectors, allowing granular filtering by company stage from pre-seed to Series E and global regions, and tracking their development over time.

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Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026: The Year of Selective Opportunity

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With the Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026, Venionaire Capital provides a concise, cross-asset assessment of public markets, private markets, and digital assets. The report explains how macroeconomic forces shape risks and opportunities as fiscal policy extends the cycle and the margin for error narrows.

The global investment environment entering 2026 is not defined by recession, but by constraint. Growth continues, yet inflation remains persistent, interest rates stay structurally higher, and volatility becomes a permanent feature of markets.

Our central message is clear: the cycle continues, but the rules have changed.

The Five Structural Forces Shaping 2026

Against this backdrop, Venionaire Capital identifies five structural forces that will shape investment outcomes in 2026:

  1. The Macro Regime: From Policy Rates to the Term Premium

The main macro challenge in 2026 is not weak growth, but inflation that remains higher for longer. As growth continues, inflation pressure, especially in wages and services, can return.

Even without new rate hikes, higher real yields affect asset prices. Bond markets are now driven more by government issuance and inflation expectations than by central bank decisions.

Long-term assets are more sensitive to yields, and valuation discipline matters across all asset classes.

  1. Public Markets: Concentration Risk Meets Capex Reality

Stock markets are still dominated by a small number of AI-driven mega-cap companies. However, investors are shifting focus from growth and scale to capital efficiency, monetisation, and balance sheet strength.

High concentration and stretched valuations, especially in the U.S., increase the importance of relative value and diversification.

What matters more in this phase is not sheer market exposure, but the quality of earnings and underlying valuation levels.

  1. Private Markets: Recovery with a Liquidity Filter

Private equity and venture sentiment has improved, but capital remains selective. While the European Venture Sentiment Index stayed positive through 2025, rising confidence is translating into targeted investments rather than broad risk-taking. For 2026, the main constraint is realisation pathways.

Although exits are improving, liquidity remains uneven, especially for earlier-stage and mid-tier companies, increasing the relevance of secondaries, structured equity, and venture debt.

Successful private-market strategies focus on exit readiness, capital efficiency, realistic timelines, and active liquidity management rather than relying on a single IPO window.

  1. Regional VC Outlook: Leadership Broadens Beyond One Geography

Venture capital leadership is broadening beyond a single geography. North America remains the global center, but the focus shifts from funding growth to proving profitability and defensible business models.

Europe shows a cautious recovery with strong thematic depth, yet faces the challenge of scaling global champions. Latin America continues to stabilise, led by Brazil, while the Middle East expands through sovereign-backed ecosystems. In Asia, capital concentrates where regulation, execution, and infrastructure align.

Venture capital is becoming more regional and differentiated, making local market dynamics and exit pathways increasingly important.

  1. Crypto: From Narrative to Infrastructure

Crypto in 2026 is shifting from speculation toward real financial infrastructure. Stablecoins, tokenised real-world assets, institutional DeFi, AI-driven on-chain settlement, and broader access via ETFs and indices are driving adoption. As utility increases, opportunities expand, but regulatory execution and credibility remain the key risks. 
 
The opportunity set expands as crypto adoption shifts from speculation toward infrastructure, while regulatory execution and credibility risks remain the central challenges.

Venionaire Capital Market Outlook 2026: Bottom Line

The opportunity is real, but the game has changed.

2026 is not about chasing every opportunity, but about choosing carefully, understanding risks, and focusing on quality, realism, and structure.

Risk assets can grind higher, yet leadership is narrower, valuations matter more, and the discount rate is no longer a sideshow.

Investors who adapt to higher structural volatility and regime-driven rotations will be best positioned to navigate the year ahead.

 

Disclaimer 

This publication is issued by Venionaire Capital AG. All rights to the content of this document—including text, data, charts, tables, images, and design—are reserved. Any copying, redistribution, extraction, or other use (in whole or in part) is not permitted without the prior written approval of Venionaire Capital AG, unless explicitly allowed by mandatory law. The material isprovided for general information only. It is not prepared with regard to any individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs, and it does not constitute investment research within the meaning of applicable regulations. While Venionaire Capital AG has prepared this publication with reasonable care and may refer to sources considered reliable, norepresentation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or continued validity of the information. Views, estimates, and forward-looking statements reflect the situation at the time of writing and may change without notice. 

Nothing in this publication constitutes financial, investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice, nor should it be understood as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any asset or instrument. This includes, without limitation, digital assets/crypto-assets, tokens, derivatives, or securities. Markets for digital assets may be volatile and involve significant risk, including the risk ofpartial or total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should make their own assessment and seek independent professional advice where appropriate. 

Venionaire Capital AG shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from the use of this publication or from reliance on any information contained herein, to the fullest extent permitted by law. 

© 2026 Venionaire Capital AG. All rights reserved. 

Compass Financial Technologies and Venionaire Capital AG announce Europe’s first onchain Index, powered by Reserve

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Venionaire Capital AG, an Austrian investment firm, together with Swiss index provider, Compass Financial Technologies, today announce the launch of the Venionaire Layer-1 Select Index (VLONE) on November 11th, a European-developed Decentralized Token Folio (DTF) that brings institutional governance and benchmark-grade quality to the blockchain. Powered by Reserve, a platform for decentralized token folios, originally backed by investors, Peter Thiel and Sam Altman, VLONE makes digital asset indexing transparent, automated, and globally accessible to crypto investors.

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Why Discipline Outperforms Discretion: The Case for Rule-Based Investing in Digital Assets

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In financial markets, emotion is the invisible tax on performance. Even the most seasoned active managers can fall victim to optimism, fear, or short-term incentives, behaviors that collectively explain why, over long horizons, the vast majority of funds fail to beat their benchmarks.

 

An index, by contrast, doesn’t get emotional. It follows its rules.

 

That distinction lies at the heart of VIDA – Venionaire Index for Digital Assets and „VLONE“ (Venionaire Layer-1 Select Index), a rules-based benchmark engineered by Compass Financial Technologies and developed by our Web3 team at Venionaire Capital. VLONE captures the performance of leading Layer-1 blockchains – Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and many others, using transparent criteria such as liquidity, adoption metrics, network governance, and technological innovation.

 

Where an active crypto fund manager might chase narratives or overreact to market volatility, VLONE maintains structural discipline. Its quantitative methodology determines weights objectively and rebalances according to measurable fundamentals.

 

The result speaks for itself: VLONE has delivered strong cumulative returns through consistent methodology and zero human bias, as the time series of a few years of back testing shows.

 

For investors, investing in an index is more than efficiency, it’s psychological protection. By design, VLONE resists the emotional rollercoaster that undermines active decision-making in digital asset markets.

 

The recently lunched VLONE-based Decentralised Token Folio (DTF) by Reserve, a company trusted by top tier tech investors such as Peter Thiel and Sam Altman, extends this principle to an investable, on-chain structure, enabling exposure to the same disciplined framework through decentralised infrastructure.

 

In a market where sentiment swings faster than fundamentals, staying systematic isn’t just smart. It’s survival.

EVSI-Report: Investor:innen investieren mehr Kapital in weniger Start-ups

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Der European Venture Sentiment Index von Venionaire erfasst jedes Quartal die Investitionsaktivität und Stimmung unter europäischen Top-Investor:innen und gibt einen Ausblick darauf, was die Startup-Branche erwartet. Nach einem starken Start zu Jahresbeginn, wird das Umfeld für Investitionen und Finanzierungen zunehmend herausfordernder.

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Venionaire Capital at the Clinton Global Initiative 2025 Annual Meeting 

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A Global Platform for Collaboration 

Venionaire Capital was honored to take part in the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) Annual Meeting 2025, held on September 24–25 in New York City, and serving as an advisor for the Economy Working Group. The event once again gathered leaders from business, government, philanthropy, and civil society to address urgent global challenges and explore solutions through collaboration. 

For more than two decades, the CGI community has launched groundbreaking partnerships, bold investments, and influential social impact initiatives. This year, the stakes were higher than ever, with a renewed focus on moving bold ideas into real-world solutions. 

The Introduction of CGI Working Groups 

A key innovation at CGI 2025 was the launch of Working Groups. These curated, hands-on sessions were designed for strategic collaboration and real-time problem-solving. Unlike traditional panels or presentations, Working Groups provided immersive and structured conversations, focused on short- and long-term action. 

Each Working Group convened for a total of three hours over two sessions. Guided by the Chatham House Rule, participants could freely exchange ideas without attribution, fostering a safe environment for open and constructive dialogue. 

The format prioritized engagement and inclusivity. Rather than pitches or self-promotion, discussions emphasized shared values, scalable solutions, and opportunities for practical collaboration. This approach aligned closely with Venionaire Capital’s mission to drive sustainable impact by bridging capital markets with innovative entrepreneurship. 

Venionaire Capital leading the Economy Working Group 

CEO of Venionaire Capital, Berthold Baurek-Karlic, led the Economy Working Group as the Working Group Advisor. This group brought together investors, entrepreneurs, and thought leaders. The central question was how to reignite inclusive and resilient economic growth by strengthening international cooperation and leveraging the transformative power of technology. 

Through active participation, we engaged in dialogue on global economic resilience, the role of innovation, and the importance of cross-border collaboration. These discussions highlighted the complexity of today’s challenges but also the immense potential of collective action. 

Breakout Session: Building Global Relations 

In addition to the Working Group, Venionaire Capital participated in a special breakout session co-hosted by the World Venture Forum Foundation and Encubay:
“Building Global Relations: Strategy & Social Networking for Entrepreneurs and Investors.” 

The session explored strategies for building stronger international ties and creating opportunities at the intersection of innovation and investment. It offered practical insights for entrepreneurs and investors seeking to strengthen global networks and foster meaningful collaborations. 

Looking Ahead: From Dialogue to Action 

Participating in CGI 2025 was both an honor and an important step in our ongoing commitment to impact. The experience reaffirmed our belief that the world’s most urgent problems cannot be solved in isolation. Instead, they require cooperation across sectors, borders, and disciplines. 

By engaging in this global dialogue, we continue to build on its mission to connect ideas, people, and capital. Together, with our partners in the CGI community, we are determined to fuel inclusive growth, empower communities, and shape a more resilient and sustainable future. 

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