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Why Discipline Outperforms Discretion: The Case for Rule-Based Investing in Digital Assets

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In financial markets, emotion is the invisible tax on performance. Even the most seasoned active managers can fall victim to optimism, fear, or short-term incentives, behaviors that collectively explain why, over long horizons, the vast majority of funds fail to beat their benchmarks.

 

An index, by contrast, doesn’t get emotional. It follows its rules.

 

That distinction lies at the heart of VIDA – Venionaire Index for Digital Assets and „VLONE“ (Venionaire Layer-1 Select Index), a rules-based benchmark engineered by Compass Financial Technologies and developed by our Web3 team at Venionaire Capital. VLONE captures the performance of leading Layer-1 blockchains – Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and many others, using transparent criteria such as liquidity, adoption metrics, network governance, and technological innovation.

 

Where an active crypto fund manager might chase narratives or overreact to market volatility, VLONE maintains structural discipline. Its quantitative methodology determines weights objectively and rebalances according to measurable fundamentals.

 

The result speaks for itself: VLONE has delivered strong cumulative returns through consistent methodology and zero human bias, as the time series of a few years of back testing shows.

 

For investors, investing in an index is more than efficiency, it’s psychological protection. By design, VLONE resists the emotional rollercoaster that undermines active decision-making in digital asset markets.

 

The recently lunched VLONE-based Decentralised Token Folio (DTF) by Reserve, a company trusted by top tier tech investors such as Peter Thiel and Sam Altman, extends this principle to an investable, on-chain structure, enabling exposure to the same disciplined framework through decentralised infrastructure.

 

In a market where sentiment swings faster than fundamentals, staying systematic isn’t just smart. It’s survival.

VLONE Outpaces Bitcoin: Why Diversification Matters in Digital Assets

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In the world of digital assets, Bitcoin has long reigned supreme as the asset of choice for investors seeking exposure to the sector. Yet, recent performance metrics suggest that a broader approach, capturing the potential of multiple leading blockchains, may deliver superior results. Enter the Venionaire Layer-1 Select Index (VLONE), which has quietly outperformed Bitcoin over the past year while offering investors a diversified gateway into the most promising layer-1 ecosystems.


Performance Tells the Story

Over the twelve months to mid-September 2025, VLONE recorded an annualised return of more than 64%, compared to Bitcoin’s roughly 24% in the same period. This is not a marginal difference, it is a decisive outperformance that highlights the value of diversification within the blockchain economy.
Year-to-date, returns are more closely aligned—VLONE at 21.5% versus Bitcoin at 23.9%. But the trailing 12-month view underscores the real point: investors who limited themselves to Bitcoin left significant gains on the table.


The Price of Broader Exposure

Critics will point out that VLONE comes with higher volatility – 61% versus Bitcoin’s ~54%. This is true. But in financial markets, higher volatility is not inherently negative when it is accompanied by higher return. On a risk-adjusted basis, VLONE has rewarded investors with more return per unit of risk than Bitcoin over the past year.
The index achieves this by distributing exposure across a carefully selected basket of layer-1 blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana and other networks alongside Bitcoin itself. Each asset contributes differently across market cycles, smoothing out idiosyncratic risks while capturing growth beyond Bitcoin’s dominance.


Beyond Bitcoin: Capturing the Next Wave

Bitcoin remains the industry’s bellwether. Its liquidity, institutional adoption and market depth are unmatched. But innovation in blockchain does not stop with Bitcoin. Ethereum’s smart-contract ecosystem, Solana’s scaling breakthroughs, and other layer-1 projects are driving capital flows, developer activity and user adoption that increasingly define the future of the sector.
By allocating only around 15% to Bitcoin and distributing the balance across leading peers, VLONE ensures investors are not over-exposed to a single asset, no matter how dominant. This is not just diversification for its own sake, it is strategic positioning for the next wave of blockchain growth.


The Case for VLONE

For asset managers, wealth advisers and institutional investors, VLONE represents more than just another crypto product. It is:
  • A benchmark: the first BMR-regulated crypto index of its kind, listed on Bloomberg and Refinitiv, ensuring transparency and compliance.
  • A research-driven methodology: selection based on liquidity, adoption, and technological fundamentals, not hype.
  • A cost-efficient tool: enabling banks, brokers, and advisers to structure investment products that track a broad market benchmark rather than relying on single-asset exposure.
Bitcoin will always have its place in portfolios, it is the original, the most liquid, and the best understood. But in 2025, investors looking for real growth cannot ignore the performance of VLONE. By combining Bitcoin’s stability with the dynamism of other leading blockchains, VLONE has proven itself a smarter way to capture the upside of digital assets.
For investors, the message is clear: don’t just hold Bitcoin. Hold the future of blockchain. Invest in VLONE tracking products.


 

Learn more about VIDA and the VLONE Index:

Why Benchmarks Matter More Than Ever in Digital Assets

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In traditional finance, benchmarks are the invisible backbone of global markets. From pension funds to ETFs, from structured products to private portfolios, benchmarks provide orientation, comparability, and trust. Indices like the S&P 500, the MSCI World, or the STOXX Europe 600 have become household names precisely because they serve as reliable yardsticks against which performance is measured.
Now, for the first time, Venionaire Capital is bringing this same benchmark logic into the world of digital assets. With the launch of the Venionaire Index for Digital Assets (VIDA), we introduce a family of indices that combine institutional quality, transparent methodology, and regulatory compliance (BMR) with the unique dynamics of blockchain-based markets.


Benchmarks: The Compass of Global Markets

Benchmarks have always played three essential roles in financial markets:
  1. Measuring Performance
    Without benchmarks, investors cannot objectively evaluate whether their money is working effectively. Did your fund manager truly deliver alpha, or did the market itself rise? A benchmark answers this question.
  2. Structuring Products
    The rise of ETFs and index-linked products is a testament to the power of benchmarks. Trillions of dollars are invested in funds tied to simple, transparent indices. These products are cost-efficient, scalable, and accessible.
  3. Building Trust
    Markets need standards. When an index is regulated, rules-based, and independently calculated, it creates the foundation for investor confidence. Benchmarks are not just financial tools, they are a source of stability.


The Success Story of Index Investing

The last two decades have witnessed a dramatic shift from active management to passive investing.
  • In 2000, active funds dominated, with index funds and ETFs representing only a fraction of global assets.
  • By 2020, passive funds had overtaken active funds in U.S. equities, managing more than half of the market’s assets.
  • Today, ETFs and index products are the fastest-growing segment in asset management globally.
Why? Because investors realized that most active funds fail to beat their benchmarks after fees. Index investing gave them a simpler, cheaper, and often more profitable alternative.


The Missing Benchmark in Digital Assets

While equities and bonds have long enjoyed the clarity of benchmarks, the digital asset space has been missing such a foundation. For years, crypto markets were dominated by speculative behavior, hype cycles, and opaque products.
The result? Investors had little ability to compare performance, assess risk, or gain diversified exposure in a transparent way.
This gap is what Venionaire set out to solve. The VIDA index family provides:
  • Research-driven methodologies that consider not only size but also quality factors.
  • Diversified exposure to the most promising Layer-1 blockchains.
  • BMR compliance for regulatory trust and institutional adoption.
  • Independent calculation through our partner Compass Financial Technologies.
With VIDA, digital assets now have their equivalent of the S&P 500 — a standard benchmark that can guide investment decisions and structure new products.


The First Step: VLONE – Venionaire Layer One Index

The first index in the VIDA family is VLONE, focusing on Layer-1 blockchains — the backbone of the blockchain economy.
VLONE is calculated and weighted based on:
  • Liquidity – ensuring investability and market depth.
  • Market Capitalization – reflecting economic relevance.
  • Technology Innovation – assessing long-term competitiveness.
  • Network Performance – capturing adoption and usage.
  • Governance Quality – ensuring sustainable growth and resilience.
This methodology ensures that the index is not simply a list of the largest tokens but a quality-driven selection of the most promising blockchains.


Why Benchmarks Matter for Institutions

For institutional investors, benchmarks are not optional, they are a prerequisite. Banks and wealth managers depend on them to evaluate fund performance and to design products that clients can easily understand. Advisors and brokers turn to indices as a basis for recommending diversified exposure rather than speculative bets. Exchanges and structured product providers, meanwhile, require benchmarks as both a legal and practical foundation for launching compliant investment vehicles.
By introducing VIDA, Venionaire opens the door for banks, advisors, and brokers to license and build products that bring digital assets into the mainstream of institutional finance.


From Chaos to Structure: The Maturity of Crypto Markets

The launch of VIDA is not happening in a vacuum. It is part of a broader trend: the institutionalization of crypto markets.
  • Regulation is catching up, with frameworks like MiCA in Europe setting standards for custody, issuance, and disclosure.
  • Infrastructure is maturing, with regulated custodians, exchanges, and trading venues.
  • Investor demand is shifting from speculative trading toward long-term, diversified exposure.
Benchmarks like VIDA accelerate this process by creating a common language and structure. Just as the S&P 500 helped transform equities into a mass market for investors, VIDA can help transform digital assets into a trusted, benchmark-driven asset class.


The Benchmark Revolution Comes to Digital Assets

The story of modern finance cannot be told without benchmarks. They measure, structure, and build trust — enabling trillions in capital flows.
Now, with VIDA, Venionaire Capital brings this benchmark logic into digital assets. The result is a family of indices that give institutions, advisors, and investors the clarity they have been waiting for.
The VLONE Index is just the beginning. Over time, more benchmarks will follow, each providing the building blocks for a professional, scalable, and efficient digital asset industry.


 

Learn more about VIDA and the VLONE Index:

Timing Altcoin Cycles in Crypto Investing

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Understanding the cycles between Bitcoin and altcoins is critical for positioning in the volatile digital asset market. As a fund that invests primarily in altcoins, Venionaire Web3 pays close attention to these cycle dynamics.

One tool that we monitor is the Altcoin Season Index, a signal that provides insight into when capital may be rotating away from Bitcoin into broader crypto markets.

Market Cycles: Bitcoin vs. Altcoins 

Crypto markets move in cycles – and nowhere is this more evident than in the rotations between Bitcoin and altcoins: 

  1. Bitcoin leads the rally, attracting institutional and retail flows, and increasing its market dominance. 
  2. Profit rotation begins, as investors seek higher beta in alternative assets. 
  3. Altcoin season emerges, characterized by broad-based outperformance among altcoins. 

Being able to identify and respond to this pattern is essential to generate superior returns – and to avoid drawdowns when the market tilts back toward Bitcoin dominance. 

The Altcoin Season Index Explained 

One key indicator we monitor is the CMC Altcoin Season Index, which measures the percentage of top coins outperforming Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day period. It is designed to determine whether the market is favoring altcoins or Bitcoin. The index (blue line, 0-100 scale) gauges whether Bitcoin or altcoins are leading the market at a given time: 

  • If 75% or more of the top 100 coins outperform Bitcoin, it is considered Altcoin Season. 
  • If 25% or fewer outperform Bitcoin, it is considered Bitcoin Season. 

Currently, the index sits in the 30s, which points to a Bitcoin-favoring market environment – meaning that capital continues to concentrate in Bitcoin rather than rotating widely into the altcoin market. 

However, the index is not without limitations. It includes a wide range of tokens, including memecoins, which are often driven by speculation rather than substance. These can distort the signal. For this reason, we treat the index as a directional indicator, not a trading signal – and always cross-reference it with market fundamentals.

Characteristics of an Altcoin Season 

When a true altcoin season is underway, we typically observe three key market behaviors: 

  1. Altcoins Gain Market Share

Altcoins begin to absorb a larger share of total crypto market capitalization. For example, during the altcoin rally in May 2021, the combined market cap of the top 100 altcoins grew to around 130 percent of Bitcoin’s market cap – a significant shift in capital allocation. 

  1. Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin

During historical altcoin seasons, we have seen sharp outperformance. In the first half of 2021, the top 100 altcoins posted average returns of 174 percent, while Bitcoin’s price rose by just 2 percent in the same period. 

  1. Increased Volume and Speculative Activity

Altcoin seasons are typically accompanied by strong bullish sentiment and a surge in trading volumes. This momentum is often driven by narratives, community-driven interest, and in some cases, speculative enthusiasm. 

Why Timing Matters 

In a high-volatility asset class like crypto, timing is not just beneficial – it is essential. At Venionaire Web3, we use a combination of quantitative analysis, technical indicators, and macro insights to inform our positioning across different phases of the market cycle. 

When our analysis and indicators (like the Altcoin Season Index) point toward an approaching or underway altcoin season, without memecoin data distortion, we position the portfolio to capture those opportunities. Conversely, when the market is in a Bitcoin-centric phase or an off-season for alts, we prioritize risk management – focusing on fundamentals and maintaining disciplined exposure rather than chasing hype. This data-driven, cycle-aware approach helps us maximize returns while mitigating downside risk through the inevitable ebbs and flows of the crypto market.

A Data-Informed, Cycle-Aware Strategy 

Our investment philosophy is built on discipline, research, and timing. The Altcoin Season Index is one of several tools that help us evaluate when to increase risk and when to reduce it. Combined with our internal research framework and proprietary analytics, it supports a professional, long-term approach to managing Web3 investments. 

We do not chase momentum – we anticipate it. And when it appears, we are ready to act decisively. 

Learn More 

Professional investors recognize that informed timing can significantly enhance long-term performance. We strive to demonstrate thought leadership in this space by leveraging market analytics and experience to navigate the Bitcoin vs. altcoin rotations. Venionaire Capital brings institutional rigor to the digital asset space. If you are an investor looking to gain exposure to altcoins through a professionally managed, cycle-aware strategy, we invite you to connect with us. 

Contact our team to learn more about how we identify market cycles, manage volatility, and build conviction in the evolving world of crypto investing. 

Web3 Outlook 2025: A Transformational Year

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Web3 is set to transform industries and redefine the digital landscape in 2025. After years of hype, the Web3 space is starting to mature, with key advancements in cryptocurrency, decentralized finance (DeFi), and NFTs. At Venionaire Capital, we are actively involved in the Web3 space through our Venionaire Web3 Fund, which focuses on investing in cutting-edge decentralized technologies and supporting the growth of the next generation of blockchain-based solutions. 

2024: Web3 Goes Mainstream 

In 2024, Web3 made its mark in the mainstream. Bitcoin (BTC) reached new all-time highs, aided by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which boosted interest in the Web3 space. Furthermore, high-profile endorsements, such as President Trump’s backing of cryptocurrency, further fueled Web3’s growth. As the Web3 space evolved, the focus shifted from speculative hype to more practical applications, preparing the ground for widespread adoption in 2025. 

The Cyclical Nature of Web3: Mass Adoption on the Horizon 

Web3 operates in cyclical periods, typically lasting 2-3 years. After the 2020-2022 crypto boom, the market is entering a new cycle of mass adoption from 2024-2026. While earlier cycles centered on blockchain experimentation, the focus now is on building scalable, real-world solutions. In 2025, Web3 is poised to go beyond early developments like NFTs and DeFi, moving toward broader use cases that bridge technology, culture, and finance. 

These advancements will likely enable Web3 to penetrate traditional industries, including finance, gaming, and supply chain management, creating new business models and expanding the adoption of decentralized technologies. 

AI Agents in Web3: A Game-Changer 

One of the most exciting trends in Web3 is the rise of AI agents. These autonomous, blockchain-enabled entities are capable of performing tasks without human intervention, and they are set to revolutionize industries like gaming, entertainment, and finance. In Web3, AI agents range from simple smart contracts to complex, human-like avatars capable of interacting with users in virtual environments. 

For instance, AI agents can personalize gaming experiences by dynamically adjusting in-game elements based on player behavior. The game “Saga: Emerald Beyond” demonstrates how AI can enhance the gaming experience by assisting with combat adjustments and debugging. This innovation represents the potential for AI agents to play a transformative role in Web3. 

SocialFi and DePIN: The Future of Web3 

Web3 is increasingly moving beyond finance into social applications. SocialFi, a fusion of social media and decentralized finance, is gaining traction, particularly among Gen-Z and Gen-Alpha. These users are looking for more than financial transactions—they want decentralized communities that reward participation, content creation, and engagement. 

Additionally, DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks) is emerging as a transformative force in industries relying on real-world infrastructure. Projects like Spacecoin and Helium are pioneering decentralized networks for satellite internet and the Internet of Things (IoT), respectively. Spacecoin, for example, made waves in December 2024 by launching its first satellite, marking a significant milestone for decentralized satellite internet. 

These DePIN projects have the potential to disrupt traditional industries by decentralizing critical infrastructure, making it more accessible and efficient. 

NFTs and Digital Ownership 

Although NFTs gained popularity in the 2020-2022 boom, their full potential remains untapped. In 2025, NFTs are expected to evolve beyond digital art and collectibles, becoming tools for establishing verifiable digital ownership across multiple sectors, including gaming, real estate, and intellectual property. 

NFTs could also enable the creation of decentralized identity systems, allowing users to manage their online presence and assets securely. This opens new opportunities for digital ownership and verification, positioning NFTs as a core component of the Web3 ecosystem. 

Web3’s Impact on Traditional Industries 

Web3 technologies are increasingly being explored by traditional industries seeking to improve transparency, efficiency, and security. Blockchain’s decentralized nature is particularly attractive to sectors like supply chain management and financial services. By eliminating intermediaries, Web3 solutions can streamline operations and reduce costs. 

In addition, the integration of decentralized finance (DeFi) is providing businesses with new opportunities to access capital and improve financial transactions. The continued adoption of blockchain and Web3 technologies by traditional sectors will likely drive further growth in 2025. 

A Transformative Year Ahead for Web3 

Web3 in 2025 promises to be a transformative year. With the rise of AI agents, the expansion of SocialFi and DePIN, and the evolution of NFTs, Web3 is on the brink of mainstream adoption. As these technologies mature and integrate with traditional industries, Web3 will continue to reshape the digital landscape. 

For investors, businesses, and developers, 2025 presents a unique opportunity to participate in the Web3 revolution. By embracing decentralized technologies and exploring innovative applications, Web3 is set to redefine the internet as we know it. 

Listen to all the new trends and market developments in the first episode of Venionaire Insights:

“Mom, are we there yet?” Bitcoin’s Journey Beyond the Election Cycle

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Author: Igor Hadziahmetovic | Investment Director & Web3 Tech Lead at Venionaire Web3

In the short term, it doesn’t really matter who wins the US elections. The bitcoin price is poised to appreciate further. The reasons for this optimism are manifold; some of the key factors revolve around bitcoin being an accepted hedge against economic turbulence and uncertainty:

  • Ever-increasing US national debt and money printing
  • Increased weakening of the USD as the world’s reserve currency
  • De-dollarization by central banks and rising sovereign debt as demand driver for bitcoin and gold reserves
  • Centrals banks, governments, and corporates increasingly include bitcoin along with gold in their reserves and balance sheets
  • Financial institutions are increasing their BTC adoption and crypto-industry involvement
  • US ETF inflows are increasing, with other countries following suit

On Tuesday, 29-Oct, bitcoin approached its all-time high (ATH) at around $73.6k before quickly retracing. Depending on the trading venue, some prices did breach new highs, as seen with bitcoin CME futures reaching a new ATH at $74,485. The last week of October brought exceptional price performance, with bitcoin closing the month up 10.9%. Currently, we’re seeing price retracements across the board. When bitcoin experiences even minor corrections, altcoins typically face more significant declines due to their higher beta.

Weekend price action, notorious for lower liquidity and reduced trader participation, often allows for wider price swings before Monday’s open. The last weekly close left a large upper wick reaching into the ATH price range, before retracing to close +1.18% higher than its opening price. However, on monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes, bitcoin maintains its bullish stance as long as it holds the $65-66k level. Even a retracement from $74k to $65k, representing a 12.5% decrease, would not disrupt bitcoin’s bullish market structure.

As a side note: Election days typically see heightened risk premiums, with many traders and investors looking to reduce their exposure. bitcoin experienced similar price retracements a few days before the 2016 and 2020 elections, dropping approximately 7% and 10% respectively. Notably, these pre-election lows were never retested after the elections concluded.

Let’s zoom out a bit.

The short-term impact of the US presidential elections on bitcoin’s price appears to be already priced in, suggesting a potential sell-the-news event. I’m not sure if this holds true for Ether, though. It is interesting to see what historical data shows for the post-elections period of bitcoin’s performance (BTC Index). It can help us to understand what might lie ahead:

Year of elections 30d performance 90d performance 180d performance
2012 24.15% 92.02% 937.91%
2016 9.88% 49.55% 135.95%
2020 41.75% 161.89% 321.88%
Average 25.26% 101.15% 465.24%

The regulatory landscape for bitcoin is improving globally, not just in the US. This trend is expected to continue under the new president, whoever that may be. bitcoin became one of key topics in the US election campaign, which underscores its importance in the political landscape and its role in national interests. I guess bitcoin has indeed come a long way from being ignored and later fiercely opposed as a ‘currency for criminals.’

But, beside bitcoin, there are thousands of other coins and tokens out there that haven’t really profited from positive regulatory development. Yet.

I find this point far more interesting for the post-elections period, potentially providing quality altcoins with strong tailwinds and boosting their adoption. Verticals and sectors like Payments (CFS), zk-Tech, DePIN, SocialFi, DeFi, Abstractions, xVM, and others could experience enormous growth. Currently, many technically sound and battle-tested projects face constraints in reaching their target audience and achieving greater adoption due to regulatory risks, uncertainty, red tape, and selective crackdowns.

US politicians have communicated their ambition for the country to become the world’s leading crypto industry hub, which fuels my optimism for a positive shift in regulatory stance towards quality altcoins. As we know, the crypto industry is much, much more than just bitcoin.

In case of delayed election results (e.g., recounting, contesting, etc.), the short-term volatility period may be prolonged, potentially distorting investors’ long-term perspective. This could drag on into January — the official inauguration is set for January 20th. Reacting to short-term, election-driven market changes might shake out some investors. In other words: if you hold bitcoin and quality altcoins, don’t let occasional price retracements disturb you if your investment horizon is 6-12 months or longer. Similarly, it’s good to keep some capital aside for accumulation opportunities.

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