EVSI Report Q4/2025

EVSI Report Q3/2025

EVSI Report Q2/2025

EVSI Report Q1/2025

The index actual in Q1 2025 was remarkable by surpassing its outlook, scoring 6.0% compared to the expected 5.9%.

This outcome reflects the significant 8.4% QoQ rise and an incredible YoY increase of 20.7%, mostly driven by resilient labour market conditions, improving credit affordability and improving macroeconomic conditions amid the existent economic uncertainty.

EVSI Report Q4/2024

The index actual in Q4 2024 fell below its outlook, landing at 5.5 compared to the expected 6.1.

Despite this, the index reflects a QoQ rise of 8.3% and a YoY increase of 29.1%.

The relatively significant QoQ improvement represents the gradual recovery of the European VC landscape.

EVSI Report Q3/2024

The Q3 2024 index actual fell short of previous expectations, landing at 5.1 compared to the projected 6.1.

Despite this, the index reflects a QoQ rise of 0.7% and a YoY increase of 21.1%.

These modest QoQ changes indicate a softening in growth momentum across advanced economies, along with the continued but gradual expansion of the VC ecosystem in Europe.

EVSI Report Q2/2024

The expectations outlined in the previous quarterly report have been confirmed by the Q2 2024 index actual, which precisely matched its forecast of 5.1.

This represents a QoQ rise of 2.1% and a significant YoY increase of 16.3%. These changes indicate the anticipated gradual growth of the VC ecosystem in Europe, despite the ongoing period of uncertainty.

The primary challenge for both VC investors and startups continues to be concerns over fundraising.

EVSI Report Q1/2024

The expectations outlined in the previous quarterly report have been confirmed by the Q1 2024 index actual, which surpassed previous insights with a marginal increase from 4.3 in Q4 2023 to 5.0 in Q1 2024.

This constitutes a QoQ rise of 16.0% and a significant YoY increase of 20.7%.

Such changes signify a boost in investor confidence, despite the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, towards gradual economic growth.

EVSI Report Q4/2023

In accordance with the insights provided in our preceding quarterly report, it is evident that the European VC ecosystem is progressively moving towards recovery.

This assertion is supported by the Q4 2023 index actual, exhibiting a marginal increase from 4.2 in Q3 2023 to 4.3 in Q4 2023, marking a QoQ rise of 1.6% and a minor YoY decrease of 0.4%.

Notably, European investors have acknowledged the challenges faced by the ecosystem in 2023, anticipating a substantial reversal in the coming year amidst improving macroeconomic conditions.

EVSI Report Q3/2023

The third quarter of 2023 indicated a period of turbulence in the VC ecosystem’s recovery. The index exhibited a slight decrease from 4.4 in Q2 2023 to 4.2 in Q3 2023, marking a 3.3% decline QoQ and a 10.7% drop YoY.

Despite these shifts, we emphasize that the European venture landscape, and the index in particular, is steadily progressing towards normalisation. This modest decline in the index can be attributed to a growing preference among VC investors to participate rather than lead investment rounds.

Consequently, this shift has created a scenario where startups encounter challenges in securing lead investors, which in turn contributes to the observed trend within the VC ecosystem.  

EVSI Report Q2/2023

After a turbulent start of 2023, with raising infl ation, a war in Ukraine, and an energy crisis, in Q1 2023 the European economy indicated slight signs of recovery.

A particular challenge for startups on the continent was the banking crisis, which also  significantly impacted the VC investment landscape in the region by increasing uncertainty and, as a result, contributing to a negative investors’ sentiment.

Nevertheless, the expected gradual recovery of the European economy could be noticed in this quarter, as the region seems to successfully adapt to the current period of unusual uncertainty, which can particularly be seen in the capital markets (LaSalle, 2023).

The headline infl ation in the Euro Area reached 6.1% in May 2023, which represents a decrease of 12.9% MoM and a 24.7% decrease YoY (Eurostat, 2023). The main reason is the drop in energy infl ation, which was recorded at -1.8% in May 2023.
Hence, core infl ation may be an important indicator of the overall European economic recovery.

EVSI Report Q1/2023

In the fi rst quarter of 2023, European venture capital investment experienced another slowdown, raising a total of USD 14.7 billion through 1,267 deals. This represents a 7.5% decrease (QoQ) and a significant 52.3% decrease YoY. A similar trend can be noticed in the total number of deals, which decreased by 5.5% (QoQ) and 18.8% (YoY).

EVSI Report Q4/2022

The fourth quarter of 2022 saw a continuation of the negative trend that began in the first quarter, with the index dropping from 4.7 in Q3 to 4.3 in Q4, a decrease of 8.9% compared to the previous quarter and 36.6% compared to the previous year. This represents the lowest index value since its launch, and the third-lowest point recorded in the past two quarters. The economic environment has had a severe impact on market perception among European investors, which is currently more negative than during the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions

EVSI Report Q3/2022

In Q3 2022, we recorded another decrease in the index actual continuing the trend from Q1 and Q2. The index dropped from 5.6 in Q2 to 4.7 in Q3 entering negative grounds. This represents a 15.5% decrease on a QoQ basis as well as a 29.1% decrease on a YoY basis. So far, this quarter is the second lowest recorded actual since the launching of the index. The only lower value recorded for the index actual was in Q3 2020 when the index actual was measured at 4.65. Back then, the COVID-19 pandemic raised investors’ concerns with regard to healthcare (development of vaccines), global economic slowdown (lockdowns) and supply chain shortages (international trade closing down). Similarly, the outlook for Q4 2022 (4.66) is very close to the outlook for Q4 2020 (4.40).

EVSI Report Q2/2022

In Q2 2022 the index actual continued to decline. The index went from 5.7 in Q1 to 5.6 in Q2. This represents a 2.6%
decrease on a QoQ basis as well as an 18.6% on a YoY basis. The actual in Q2 is the lowest since Q1 2021.
The actual is still higher than the outlook of 5.1 which was reported in Q1. The economic and political crisis continues to strongly impact investors’ sentiment in a negative direction. The decrease in investment volume and number of deals are largely due to lower deal activity in later stages. However, the earlier stages continue to perform on seemingly good levels. Which has resulted in a lesser decrease in the index actual than anticipated. The strongest decrease in the index actual comes from a 12.85% lower perception of current valuations compared to the last quarter.

EVSI Report Q1/2022

At the beginning of this year, it became clear that the post-pandemic recovery trend would likely not continue due to sudden and drastic changes in the geopolitical landscape. The consequences of the global COVID-19 pandemic receded into the background. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine, the consequent sanctions on Russia and supply shortages have shaken up Europe’s economic, political and economic scene. There is tremendous pressure on Europe in terms of demand, inflation, and energy security which has given another push to sustainability startups (Dealroom, 2022). The price of Brent and the global price benchmark for crude oils experienced an unprecedented increase of 40%, reaching the USD 100 price per barrel which was long forgotten since 2013 (WorldBank, 2022).

EVSI Report Q4/2021

In Q4 of 2021, we once again observed a positive index actual for a fifth consecutive quarter. 2021 was a record-breaking year for European venture capital and startups on the old continent provided good returns for investors in the conditions of a pandemic. The outlook for Q1 2022 is lower than the index for Q4 2021. Investors remain vigilant for the coming quarter and are worried over the impact inflation might have on valuations as well as the overall attractiveness of the sector. Investment volume in Q4 was lower than Q3 and Q2 of the same year but constituted a +78% YoY increase. In 2021 Berlin continued to exhibit strong growth of its venture ecosystem and seem to be steadily replacing London as the leading European startup hub.

EVSI Report Q3/2021

The venture sentiment continues to be in positive territory. The outlook for Q4 is also positive, and the gap with the actual index seems to be closing. The positivity of the current quarter can be related to economies picking up speed after the pandemic. However, reported high valuations might be misleading for the ecosystem. There is still a general uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 and the development of inflation rates. Venture investment volume remained high compared to 2020. However, in this quarter post-Brexit UK continued to grow on a quarterly basis, while other European ecosystems did not manage to top their Q2 records. Lastly, fintech and health tech attracted the most investment in Q3.

EVSI Report Q2/2021

The venture sentiment continues to be on the positive side. The outlook for Q3 is also positive but significantly lower than the actual index for Q2 2021. The positivity of the current quarter can be attributed to the relative success of the vaccination efforts, the effective re-opening of the economy, and high valuation levels in both private and public markets. However, there is still a general uncertainty surrounding the impact of the delta variant as well as the future development of inflation rates for the future.

EVSI Report Q1/2021

The ongoing global vaccination efforts show first promising results, with leading countries being on track to normality. The pandemic’s latest developments support optimistic forecasts for businesses and provide both ventures and investors with more confidence. This positivity is reflected by a record jump in the sentiment index in Q1 and all-time high transaction volumes in venture investments.

EVSI Report Q4/2020

The last quarter of 2020 has seen a significant improvement of the index, rising into a positive territory of 5.29. The market seemed to have adjusted to the „new normal“,  as 2020 has seen the largest level of venture investment in Europe ever recorded. However, most of the funds went into supporting already established startups, with up-and-comers reporting difficulties in fundraising. The outlook for Q1 2020 was exceedingly positive, with the index projecting to rise to 5.5 – which would put it near the high levels of 2021. There is little doubt that this optimism is spurred by hopes of widespread adoption and distribution of COVID vaccines.

EVSI Report Q3/2020

The European Venture Sentiment Index was nearly unchanged at 4.65 in Q3. Investors also seemed to get better at navigating and predicting the crisis, since the spread between the predicted and actual scores was the narrowest since the crisis began. In Q3 we have also seen investors taking advantage of lower valuations, as revenues dropped nearly across the board, causing larger burn rates. Many national government and Europe-wide programs were coming to an end in this quarter, with uncertainty over whether they will be replaced or extended. The trend of forecasting the index lower in the following quarter continued, this time falling to 4.4 points, amid fears of a second wave of lockdowns as summer comes to an end.

EVSI Report Q2/2020

In contrast to the previous quarter, survey answers showed a relatively small spread, indicating quite homogenous market expectations across Europe. The index fell into negative territory of 4.62 points, which slightly exceeds the forecasted outlook. Investors held mostly a „risk-off“ sentiment, focused on supporting their existing portfolio companies, and passing on the majority of new opportunities. The projection for Q3 was relatively stable, but still lower than the current quarter – falling to 4.53 points. In Q2 we have also witnessed a boom in the HealthTech and High-Tech (especially those dealing with remote learning/working, delivery, online communication) sectors. Governmental aid programs have been rated moderately effective.

EVSI Report Q1/2020

In Q1 2020, The European Venture Sentiment Index dropped close to a „neutral“ level of 5.2, amid the first restrictions and lockdowns imposed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The outlook for Q2 showed a significant decrease in investment willingness, as well as concerns over falling valuations. Accordingly, the index was projected to fall to negative territory (4.3) in the second quarter. It is noteworthy to mention that the answers in the survey showed quite a large bandwidth, which corresponds to great uncertainty as the COVID pandemic started spreading across Europe.