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Recovery with a Liquidity Filter: Secondaries, Structure, and the New Private-Market Toolkit

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

Why “better mood” is not the same as better outcomes

Exit activity is improving relative to the trough, yet liquidity remains uneven. That distinction defines the environment for 2026: conditions are no longer uniformly deteriorating, but recovery does not translate into broadly realised outcomes.

Improvement exists, but it is selective. The central issue is therefore not whether conditions have stabilised, but who is actually positioned to convert stabilisation into realised liquidity – and who remains structurally constrained.

Exits may improve – but liquidity stays uneven.

The liquidity filter – framed as a mechanism, not a claim

When liquidity remains uneven, a filtering process emerges by default. It does not need to be asserted; it is implied by how markets function under constrained exit capacity.

The relevant questions are therefore structural rather than emotional:

  • which companies can realistically access exit windows when they open
  • which portfolios can sustain value if those windows close again
  • which capital structures remain workable under delayed realisation

Recovery, in this framing, is conditional. Liquidity does not vanish, but it concentrates rather than disperses.

Secondaries, structure, and debt – why they enter the discussion

Secondaries, structured equity, and venture debt enter the picture not as signals of exuberance, but as responses to constrained realisation. They appear where timing risk dominates and traditional exits remain uncertain.

Secondaries and structure become the toolkit for selective liquidity.

Rather than indicating a universal shift, these instruments support a narrower reading:

  • when exits are possible but inconsistent, bridging mechanisms gain relevance
  • when timing risk outweighs pricing risk, structure matters more than headline valuation
  • when dilution becomes expensive, alternative capital forms enter consideration

They function as options under constraint, not as guarantees of outcome.

Exit readiness instead of exit timing

Preparedness takes precedence over prediction. The environment does not reward precise timing forecasts, but it increasingly differentiates between those who are structurally ready and those who are not.

This shifts attention:

  • away from identifying a single optimal exit moment
  • toward maintaining conditions under which multiple exit paths remain viable

Capital efficiency and durability matter in this context, not as solutions, but as prerequisites for optionality.

What remains uncertain – and therefore actionable

Several unresolved questions naturally follow:

  • If liquidity is uneven, how long can individual companies realistically bridge?
  • Under what conditions do secondaries or structured capital improve outcomes rather than defer decisions?
  • When does extending runway preserve optionality – and when does it quietly erode it?

These are not resolved mechanically. They are the decision points that define outcomes under selective liquidity.

Why this framing matters

Recovery can coexist with persistent liquidity constraints for a large share of assets. Making that tension explicit reframes secondaries, structure, and alternative financing as context-dependent tools, not universal solutions.

For readers seeking the full cross-asset logic – how this liquidity filter connects to macro conditions, public markets, and capital discipline – the complete Market Outlook 2026 provides the necessary depth and integration.

Exit Windows in 2026: Episodic, Not Smooth – and What “Exit-Ready” Really Means

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

The 2026 backdrop makes one thing clear: listed markets reset the cost of capital – and that flows into episodic IPO and M&A windows, higher dispersion, and a shift from beta to selective leadership.

In private markets, the binding constraint is not simply “sentiment”. It is realisation pathways. Exits improve versus the trough, but liquidity remains uneven, especially for mid tier and earlier stage companies – which raises the importance of secondaries, structured equity, and venture debt.

That tension also shows up in sentiment measures. EVSI signals improving confidence, while flagging practical pressure points for early 2026 such as higher requirements on traction and execution, a still tight exit market, and tougher Series A conditions.

This is why the exit discussion needs a reset. The likely pattern is not a smooth reopening, but episodic windows.

Public markets set the bar for private outcomes

Public equity markets reset the cost of capital in 2026.

Exit windows open in bursts – public markets set the bar

Even for PE and VC, listed markets matter because they determine three things:

  • the discount rate that anchors valuations
  • the multiples that reset private marks
  • the state of the exit window – IPO and M&A confidence

This is the transmission mechanism. When the listed market’s pricing regime shifts, private outcomes reprice with it.

A regional cross check makes the point concrete. In North America, the outlook expects the improved exit environment to support higher levels of realisation in 2026 – with the IPO window reopening and M&A activity remaining strong – while also warning that liquidity will remain uneven, particularly for mid tier and earlier stage companies.

Why exits open in bursts

Episodic windows follow a recognisable pattern: periods where quality issuance clears and acquisition confidence returns, followed by pauses when rates or politics reprice uncertainty.

That is consistent with the broader constraint described elsewhere: exits can improve while liquidity stays uneven. In that environment, the market clears the very best first – and the rest waits for the next window.

So the strategic error in 2026 is not “missing the perfect week”. The bigger error is building a portfolio plan around timing a window that can close as fast as it opens.

Don’t time it Be exit-ready

Exit readiness beats exit timing

The practical goal is to be exit ready at all times, not to “time the window”.

Exit readiness is not a slogan. It is a set of actions that raises optionality under imperfect conditions.

This is not a year where “market beta” does the work. In private markets, performance will be driven by manager actions.

What “exit ready” looks like in practice

The outlook frames levers that define readiness in 2026:

  • Portfolio triage, not portfolio hope. Concentrate follow on capital behind assets that can credibly reach cash flow breakeven or strategic defensibility within realistic timeframes. De risk the rest early through governance, cost actions, and strategic alternatives – rather than waiting for an external recovery to do the job.
  • Liquidity as a value creation lever. Secondaries, structured equity, and selective venture debt help protect ownership, extend runway without destructive dilution, and match company timelines to imperfect exit conditions. The outlook also expects these tools to play a growing role where liquidity remains uneven.
  • Operating discipline beats narrative. In a higher hurdle rate regime, improvements in gross margin, retention, payback, and working capital compound into higher exit optionality, because buyers and public markets underwrite durability, not only growth.
  • Execution speed is part of readiness. The outlook highlights term and cap table hygiene as practical work that raises the probability of capturing windows when they open.

A simple readiness checklist for 2026

If exit windows come in bursts, readiness becomes a continuous process. A practical checklist is to ask:

  • Can this asset defend its valuation under the discount rate and multiples regime set by listed markets?
  • If a window opens briefly, can governance and reporting move fast enough to convert interest into a process?
  • If a window closes, do we have liquidity tools – secondaries, structured equity, venture debt – to protect ownership and extend runway without destructive dilution?

Bottom line

In 2026, the exit environment does not reward perfect timing. It rewards readiness – because windows can open, clear quality, and then pause when uncertainty reprices.

If you want the integrated view – how the rates regime, public market pricing, and private market liquidity filters connect to exit outcomes – the full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader frame.

Valuation Asymmetry: Why Europe Can Compete Without Winning the AI Race

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

Europe does not need to lead the AI headline to be investable in 2026. Instead, a more practical setup is valuation asymmetry – a wide multiples gap paired with a narrowing growth gap, inside a region where index composition naturally creates dispersion.

The mechanism: a multiples gap with a tightening growth gap

Late 2025 multiples show a clear valuation asymmetry: European equities traded at approximately ~15x forward earnings compared to ~22–23x for the S&P 500, implying a ~30–35% valuation discount.

A discount can persist. However, the setup changes when fundamentals move.

Consensus forecasts point to around ~12% earnings growth for European equities in 2026, and they explicitly link this to a narrowing growth gap versus the U.S. and a stronger case for valuation convergence.

15x vs 22–23x – and Europe’s 2026 growth gap tightens (~12%).

The implication is straightforward: if earnings growth stops being the core objection while valuation remains the core support, rotation becomes easier to justify on price and fundamentals rather than narrative.

Europe is not one trade – index composition drives dispersion

A single regional label hides meaningful differences. Crucially, country level dispersion is re-emerging across European equities, and index composition shapes return paths.

Europe isn’t one bet – index mix drives dispersion, so selectivity pays.

Major indices reflect distinct sector mixes:

  • Germany’s DAX tilts toward cyclicals such as industrials (~25%) and financials (~21%), with an IT component.
  • France’s CAC 40 concentrates in large industrials and global consumer and luxury leaders, with examples listed among top weights.
  • The UK’s FTSE 100 carries a high financials weight (~26%) and exposure to global resource linked sectors.

Therefore, the broader 2026 setup frames a more selective and higher dispersion regime – where selection quality tends to matter more than broad beta.

Valuation support already showed up in 2025 returns

The valuation support is not theoretical. It links to observed index performance: European equities matched and slightly beat the S&P 500 over 2025, despite differing sector compositions.

This does not guarantee 2026 outcomes. Rather, it clarifies the mechanism: comparable index level returns can come from different engines when relative pricing and sector mix are supportive.

Where the opportunity shows up: specific subsegments, not a blanket bet

The opportunity set shows up most clearly in subsegments such as B2B SaaS, cybersecurity, and industrial DeepTech tied to digital and energy infrastructure.

In addition, the same section highlights strategic investment into European data centre capacity and adjacent industrial suppliers – an additional channel outside the U.S. tech core.

The constraint that forces selectivity

The European equity lens sits against a macro backdrop of weak private capital formation across several economies, with the public sector increasingly compensating through infrastructure, energy, and digital spending. An Austria example illustrates the point: private net investment falls sharply while public investment rises.

In that environment, the premium rises on listed companies with global revenue exposure, strong balance sheets, and defensible competitive positions, while domestic investment conditions remain uneven.

Valuation asymmetry improves the odds. It does not replace underwriting quality.

Bottom line

The 2026 European case is not an anti U.S. call and not a bet on Europe winning the AI race. It is a valuation asymmetry setup: a wide multiples gap, earnings growth convergence, and index driven dispersion that rewards selective positioning.

If you want the integrated view – how this European valuation setup connects to the rates regime, U.S. concentration, and private market liquidity filters – the full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader frame.

AI capex Reality Check: When Scale Meets Capital Discipline

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

The 2026 equity narrative is not simply “AI wins” or “AI fades”.

It is a more specific tension: the same companies that dominate AI leadership are also absorbing an exceptional share of the system’s capital. In a higher term-premium world, that makes the cost of leadership a first-order valuation variable.

AI leadership is now a cost-of-capital story.

Concentration is not a footnote – it is the starting point

AI-centric mega-cap technology leaders remain the centre of gravity for index weight and earnings delivery, supported by exceptional levels of AI infrastructure spending.

The concentration is quantified: the “Magnificent Seven” accounted for 34 to 35% of the S&P 500 market cap in 2025, up materially from 2024.

That is the backdrop for 2026 selection. When leadership is narrow, mistakes are amplified – and “being right on the theme” is not the same as “being right on the price”.

CAPEX is the new filter – because the scale is historically exceptional

Estimates put hyperscaler spending at around $400bn in 2025 (roughly +70% YoY), and forecasts show it exceeding $500bn in 2026 as data centre and compute buildouts accelerate.

Major Big Tech issuers increasingly use debt to finance part of this cycle. In 2025, they raised >$120bn in new debt to support AI and cloud infrastructure. That signals how capital-intensive the buildout has become.

The risk is not that investment is “too big” in absolute terms. The risk is the mismatch between the pace of capital deployment and the pace of near-term earnings delivery, particularly if revenue realisation is back-loaded.

The phase shift: scale is no longer sufficient

A clear regime statement sits at the top level of the outlook: the AI investment cycle is entering its next phase. Markets increasingly demand capital discipline, monetisation evidence, and capex efficiency – not just scale.

Scale is no longer sufficient.

That shift matters because the outlook frames 2026 as a year with less room for error. Markets punish valuation stretch and narrative excess faster; dispersion rises; leadership becomes more selective.

What “capital discipline” means in a capex-heavy cycle

In this setup, the difference between “structural winner” and “overpriced infrastructure builder” becomes decisive. Heavy investment can create extraordinary capability – and still produce mixed returns for the companies funding the buildout, especially when capex growth outpaces near-term earnings delivery.

A disciplined lens is therefore practical, not philosophical. It turns into questions such as:

  • Does the capex trajectory match visible earnings delivery, or does revenue realisation become increasingly back-loaded?
  • Does the buildout rely more on debt financing – and does that change the market’s tolerance for valuation?
  • Are expectations already demanding, or is valuation support still present?

Where the “capex reality” creates relative opportunity

In a higher term-premium world, valuation asymmetry matters more. With U.S. market concentration near historic highs and valuations stretched, relative opportunities broaden toward lower-valuation markets and sectors where expectations are less demanding.

This is where the selective case for Europe enters: European-listed tech equities can benefit from a valuation rotation as investors seek alternatives to stretched U.S. mega-caps.

As of late 2025, European equities traded at approximately ~15x forward earnings compared to ~22–23x for the S&P 500, implying a ~30–35% valuation discount, well above long-term historical norms.

The point is not “Europe replaces the U.S.” The point is that valuation support and dispersion create room for selective rotation – particularly toward quality earnings, balance-sheet strength, and sectors where expectations are less demanding.

Bottom line

AI remains the leadership engine – but leadership now comes with a measurable capital bill. In 2026, the question is not whether the buildout continues; it is whether the market pays for the buildout at the same multiple once it assesses capex intensity, financing mix, and earnings delivery under a higher hurdle rate.

If you want the integrated view – how AI concentration and capex reality connect to the discount-rate regime, cross-asset dispersion, and regional valuation rotation – the full Market Outlook 2026 connects those dots.

From Cuts to Supply: How Duration Became the New Volatility

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

For most of the past decade, fixed income lived inside one dominant story: central banks would eventually cut, yields would fall, and duration would behave. That framing no longer explains the world described in the Market Outlook 2026.

The key shift is stated plainly: “The defining fixed-income theme of 2026 is not where policy rates go next, but how markets price duration risk.”

In other words, the question is moving from direction to absorption – who holds duration, at what price, and with how much tolerance for volatility.

Not about cuts – about duration pricing.

Duration is back – and it is the volatility driver

Fixed income volatility is increasingly shaped by a different mix of forces than the simple “next central bank decision”. The drivers are bond supply, inflation compensation, and investor tolerance for duration.

This matters because those forces do not fade just because policy rates stop rising. When supply is heavy and inflation persistence remains a constraint, the long end can reprice even in an environment where growth still holds up.

From policy dominance to the supply channel

A central constraint on sentiment is inflation persistence. Inflation appears to have bottomed in 2025 at levels still meaningfully above pre-pandemic norms, with services and wages singled out as the areas to watch.

With inflation persistence as the backdrop, the market impact flows through a repricing of term premia, which lifts long-end yields and tightens financial conditions even without overt policy tightening.

That takes the market into a regime where the long end behaves less like a passive reflection of “future cuts” and more like a live referendum on credibility, inflation risk, and duration supply.

Curve pressure and the hurdle rate reset

The investment implication is explicit:

  • curve steepening pressure persists
  • long-duration complacency is penalised
  • higher risk-free yields raise the hurdle rate across assets

These are not abstract statements. They are a redefinition of what “risk” means in portfolios.

When the risk-free anchor is higher and less stable at the long end, the discount rate becomes a gatekeeper across markets – not only in rates, but in how equities, private assets, and growth narratives are priced.

Higher hurdle rates – more dispersion and selectivity across assets.

Why duration repricing spills into equities and private markets

The broader cross-asset setup is continued expansion with rate-driven pricing and rising selectivity.

In public equities, it describes a bifurcation – leadership concentrated in AI-centric mega-cap technology, with selective rotation elsewhere. The point here is not the equity story itself, but the rate story underneath it: when duration risk reprices, dispersion rises and the market becomes less forgiving of valuation stretch.

In private markets, the same constraint shows up through the cost of capital and the exit environment. The state of public markets feeds into private outcomes via discount rates, multiples, and the exit window.

The one question for 2026: who warehouses duration?

If you want one question that captures the shift, it is this:

Who is willing to hold long-duration exposure – and at what price – when supply, inflation compensation, and term premia are the active variables?

That question sits behind the macro framing of narrower margins for error and more structural volatility.

Signals to watch in 2026 – signals, not predictions

Mechanisms matter more than headlines:

  • Inflation persistence and its pathway into term premia and the long end.
  • The market’s capacity to absorb bond supply without higher inflation compensation.
  • Whether duration tolerance holds up when volatility resurfaces.
  • Whether curve dynamics remain a source of cross-asset repricing pressure.

Bottom line

In this framework, 2026 is not defined by a single “cut cycle” narrative. It is defined by how duration risk is priced in a world where supply and inflation compensation matter – and where that pricing sets the hurdle rate for everything else.

If you want the integrated view – how this supply-driven duration regime connects to global equities, private-market liquidity filters, regional capital cycles, and digital assets – the full Market Outlook 2026 is built to connect those dots.

Venionaire DealMatrix launches “Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples” – time series-based PE and VC valuation multiples filtered by sector, company phase, and region

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Venionaire DealMatrix, a subsidiary of Venionaire Capital, announces the launch of Venionaire DealMatrix Multiples. The new product provides private equity and venture capital multiples (EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA) covering over 140 sectors, allowing granular filtering by company stage from pre-seed to Series E and global regions, and tracking their development over time.

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The Discount-Rate Constraint: Why the Term Premium Became 2026’s Gatekeeper

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This article offers a focused insight into one of the core mechanisms shaping markets in 2026. The full Market Outlook 2026 provides the broader, integrated context across macro, public markets, private capital and digital assets.

The Discount-Rate Constraint: Why the Term Premium Became 2026’s Gatekeeper

In 2026, markets can keep moving – and still become far more selective. The base case is continued expansion, but pricing is rate-driven; leadership broadens and selectivity rises across public and private markets.

One line captures the hinge point of the year: this is primarily a discount-rate problem, not an earnings problem.

2026 is a discount-rate year, not an earnings year

What “discount-rate problem” means in practice

Earnings do not “stop mattering.” What changes is the price investors are willing to pay for them when the cost of capital resets. With sticky inflation lifting term premia, the discount rate becomes the binding constraint.

Inflation persistence ? higher term premia ? higher long-end yields

A central constraint on sentiment is inflation persistence; inflation appears to have bottomed in 2025 at levels still meaningfully above pre-pandemic norms.

As growth firms into 2026, the balance of risks shifts from disinflation surprises to renewed upside pressure, particularly in services and wages. The knock-on effect is direct: inflation persistence feeds into higher term premia, which lift long-end yields and tighten financial conditions even without overt policy tightening.

This is not framed as a growth-scare dynamic. It is a discount-rate constraint – especially for duration-heavy, consensus-long segments (explicitly: AI, BioTech, CleanTech) that have little buffer against higher real yields.

From “cuts” to “supply”: why duration becomes the new volatility

The key rates-regime shift is stated plainly: “The defining fixed-income theme of 2026 is not where policy rates go next, but how markets price duration risk.”

As easing cycles stall and growth remains resilient, the baton passes from central banks to fiscal authorities. Volatility moves from “the next decision” to bond supply, inflation compensation, and investor tolerance for duration.

At the headline level, fixed income volatility increasingly reflects those forces rather than “simply the next central-bank decision.”

The implication is equally clear: curve steepening pressure persists, long-duration complacency is penalised, and higher risk-free yields raise the hurdle rate across assets.

The “buffer test”: why markets become less forgiving

The year becomes a buffer test: markets are increasingly less forgiving of narrative excess, valuation stretch, or policy missteps. Risk assets can grind higher, but leadership becomes more selective and volatility more structural rather than episodic.

At the top level, the setup is summarised as higher dispersion and a shift from broad beta exposure to selective leadership.

Concentration meets capex reality: the discipline phase of the AI cycle

Public equities are described as bifurcated between AI-centric mega-cap technology leaders and a selective rotation into European and industrial tech franchises.

The concentration and capex scale are quantified:

  • The Magnificent Seven accounted for 34–35% of the S&P 500 market cap in 2025.
  • Hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending is estimated around $400bn in 2025 (roughly +70% YoY) and forecast to exceed $500bn in 2026.
  • Part of the buildout is increasingly debt-financed, with major Big Tech issuers raising >$120bn in new debt in 2025 to support AI and cloud infrastructure.

Alongside those numbers sits the “phase shift”: the AI investment cycle is entering its next stage, where markets increasingly demand capital discipline, monetisation evidence, and capex efficiency – not just scale.

Selectivity is structural across public and private markets

Why this constraint cascades into private-market outcomes

The same gatekeeper shows up in private outcomes via three anchors: (i) the discount rate that anchors valuations, (ii) the multiples that reset private marks, and (iii) the state of the exit window (IPO and M&A confidence).

On exits, the pattern is explicit: not a smooth reopening, but episodic windows.

This connects directly to the private-market setup described as “recovery with a liquidity filter”: sentiment remains constructive but selective; improving sentiment pairs with targeted capital allocation rather than broad risk-taking; the key constraint is realisation pathways; and liquidity remains uneven – especially for mid-tier and earlier-stage companies – raising the importance of secondaries, structured equity, and venture debt as bridging tools.

Signals to watch in 2026 (signals, not predictions)

Watch mechanisms (not slogans):

  • Inflation persistence feeding into higher term premia and long-end yields.
  • Duration risk being priced through supply, inflation compensation, and duration tolerance.
  • Ongoing curve-steepening pressure and punishment of long-duration complacency.
  • Higher dispersion and a shift from beta to selective leadership.
  • A private-market recovery that stays constrained by liquidity and realisation pathways.
  • Exit windows that open in episodic bursts rather than staying continuously “open.”

A practical checklist for 2026 decision-making

The macro constraint translates into an operating playbook, including:

  • Underwrite duration honestly (assume exits can happen, but not “on schedule”).
  • Build exit readiness as an operating system (clean reporting, credible unit economics, cap-table/terms hygiene).
  • Use structure to create asymmetric outcomes, where downside protection can be more valuable than paying for upside multiple expansion.
  • Treat liquidity as a value-creation lever (secondaries, structured equity, selective venture debt as tools in 2026).

Bottom line

The base case is continued expansion – paired with a tighter pricing regime. In that world, the discount rate becomes the gatekeeper: it shapes valuations, filters leadership, and determines how forgiving the exit environment can be.

If you want the integrated view – how the discount-rate constraint connects to rates, equities, private-market liquidity, and regional dynamics – the full Market Outlook 2026 is built to connect those dots.

Europe’s Top Investment Deals in 2020 and Q1 2021

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News of an investment deal is a reason for the entire ecosystem to celebrate. In this article, we listed top investment deals and valuations.

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Focus CEE: Venture Sentiment Slides

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In light of the vast economic changes in the European venture capital market as a result of the COVID-19, we started to monitor the venture sentiment more closely and highlight important findings in an aggregate index on the European level. In today’s article we take a closer look at CEE.

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CEO Insights & Outlook on Covid-19 Implications

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How is the startup community and investors doing in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis? It’s been a rather stormy ride for many over the last half-a-year and it’s far from calming down. Read on for Berthold Baurek-Karlic’s opinion, CEO of Venionare Capital, from an investor’s perspective.

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